Santana Trade is Like Deja Vu All Over Again

When word leaked out last Tuesday that Twins ace Johan Santana was going to be traded to the Mets for four prospects, the uproar it caused among Twins fans was deafening. Not only were they losing arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but they were getting back in return four virtual no-names — outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra — with a combined 63 games of major league experience. You’d have thought Santana was dealt for a used jock strap, a bag of balls, and an autographed picture of “Marvelous Marv” Throneberry. But he wasn’t; He was traded for four of the Mets’ top 10 prospects, ranked second, third, fourth and seventh, respectively, by Baseball America in early November.

The trade came almost 31 years after a similar deal devastated Mets fans who found themselves on the wrong end of a swap that saw veteran ace and icon Tom Seaver go to the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Pat Zachry, infielder Doug Flynn, and minor league outfielders Steve Henderson and Dan Norman. The difference between that deal and the Santana trade, however, is that the Mets were getting more proven commodities in return. Zachry went 14-7 with a 2.74 ERA as a 24-year-old rookie in 1976 and shared the Rookie of the Year Award with Padres reliever Butch Metzger. He beat the Phillies once in the playoffs, then went 1-0 against the Yankees in the World Series.

Flynn was already in his third season and while he wasn’t much with a bat in his hands, he proved to be a versatile, sure-handed infielder. Henderson, a highly-touted prospect who was getting rave reviews from scouts, was ready for the big leagues by 1977, but he couldn’t crack a Reds outfield made up of George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey. Norman was also considered a prized prospect, so much so, in fact, that Mets president Donald Grant told reporters, “Twenty years from now, people will remember this as the Dan Norman trade.” Well, it’s been more than 30 years now and no one knows who the hell Dan Norman is, let alone that he was once traded for one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, a man Mets fans called “The Franchise.”*

Now another “Franchise” has been dealt and Twins fans are left wondering what to make of it. They’re a little bitter about not getting #1 prospect Fernando Martinez, a 19-year-old outfielder, who was ranked the third best prospect in Double-A behind Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz and Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen. Martinez is weak defensively and struggles against breaking pitches and southpaws, but he has tons of potential, especially in the power department and much is expected of him.

But the players the Twins received in the Santana deal are pretty damn good.

Gomez, the Mets’ #3 prospect according to Baseball America’s rankings, was the seventh best prospect in the Pacific Coast League last season and ranked 60th among the top 100 in Baseball America’s preseason rankings heading into 2007. He had the third best speed score (40.6) in the minor leagues following the 2006 season and he was pacing the PCL with 17 steals when he was called up to the Mets in mid-May last season. He struggled at the big league level, hitting only .232 with a .288 OBA and a .304 SLG (almost exactly what his MLEs said he’d do), but his speed translated well in the majors as he stole 12 bases in 15 attempts.

Baseball America wrote about Gomez in October, “With plus speed and a cannon for an arm, Gomez was one of the league’s rangiest center fielders and perhaps its most disruptive baserunner…A high-energy player, Gomez makes adjustments in time and has the kind of strength and athleticism to develop into a power-speed threat in center field.” Despite ranking him third among Mets prospects, the magazine called Gomez the Mets’ best minor league player and claimed he was faster than Mets shortstop Jose Reyes. I’d be surprised if he isn’t the Twins starting center fielder come Opening Day.

Baseball America ranked Mulvey fourth among Mets prospects, but tabbed him as the franchise’s best minor league pitcher at the end of the 2007 season. Mulvey, who’ll be 23 in May, boasts four quality pitches (fastball, curve, changeup and slider) that he can throw for strikes. He went 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA in 152 innings with Double-A Binghamton, then tossed a two-hit, six-inning gem in his only start for Triple-A New Orleans. His MLEs are promising—11-9 with a 4.33 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 144 1/3 innings—and I’d like to think Twins fans would be satisfied with those numbers from a rookie.

Humber ranked 73rd among the top 100 at this time last year, finishing ahead of Mulvey and Guerra, neither of whom made the list. Apparently he’s slipped back a bit as he’s currently ranked behind his teammates, coming in at #7 on the Mets’ prospect list. Based on that, I’m going to assume he’s fallen off the top 100 list altogether. He blew out his elbow after only 15 starts as a professional and had Tommy John surgery in July 2005, but he returned in 2006 and posted a 2.84 ERA in 76 innings. His numbers took a bit of a hit in 2007, as he went 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA, but it was his first season at the Triple-A level and he proved his elbow is sound. He averaged almost six innings a start and fanned 7.8 batters per 9 innings. His MLEs aren’t nearly as impressive as Mulvey’s, however.

Guerra was the #2 ranked prospect in the Mets’ organization, behind Martinez, and was considered their best pitching prospect. Baseball America had him ranked eighth among Florida State League prospects, right behind highly-touted Yankees hurler Ian Kennedy. He’ll be only 19 this year and he’s never pitched above Class A ball, so he has a longer road ahead of him than the other three players the Twins received in the deal.

He features a fastball that clocks out between 92-93, but has a tendency to drop to the 89-90 range, and he’s working on a changeup to complement his fastball. He also has a curve ball that hangs up in the strike zone all too frequently, but has the potential to be a devastating pitch for him in the future. As a 17-year-old in 2006, Guerra posted a 2.53 ERA between two minor league stops, then followed up with a 4.01 mark last year. His strikeout ratio is solid if unspectacular—he’s fanned 6.8 batters per 9 innings in his first two seasons—and he’s done a good job of improving his K/BB ratio, raising it from 1.60 in ‘06 to 2.64 last year.

His MLEs look horrible, but again, he’s only 18 and won’t be 19 for a couple more months.

When trading for prospects there are never guarantees, but Twins fans may be happier in a few years than they thought they’d be. Even a Mets fan would tell you that it’s not all bad and that things turned out better than expected in the Seaver deal. But you’ll have to forgive them if they aren’t exactly sympathetic to your plight right now. They’re probably too busy rejoicing about being on the right side of a trade for once.

* We’ve decided to write a series of articles in which we’ll analyze 10 trades from the past, including the aforementioned Seaver deal, to see how they turned out for the teams involved. We’ll be picking trades that are similar in scope and include the following criteria: A) The primary player involved must have been a star at the time of the trade. B) The primary player involved must have been in his prime and no older than 32. C) The team trading the star must have gotten more players in return than they were sending out. D) Deals involving large sums of cash were largely (though not entirely) ignored.

Up next: Tom Seaver from New York to Cincinnati for Pat Zachry, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson and Dan Norman.