SHL Expansion Three: July Unkind to All

Jays and D’Rocks battle through tough times at top of division; Mariners still have outside shot.

The four Expansion Three teams are having a difficult time winning games in July, combining to emerge victorious only 39% of the time in 80 contests so far.  The second-place D’Rocks are the best team in the division at 9-11, the Mariners are 8-12, and the Blue Jays and Marlins/Rays are 7-13.  The Jays still cling to a lead, but it’s been reduced to only two games with 63 yet to be played.  Meanwhile the Mariners are a manageable seven games off the pace and still have an outside chance at catching the front-runners.  The Marlins/Rays at 22 games back are the only ones who are out of the race.

Blue Jays: The Jays’ plight could be worse than it is, especially after they lost the first two games of a four-game set with the Mariners on July 11-12, but they salvaged the last two games to keep the M’s at arm’s length.  Unfortunately they went into a five-game tailspin before recovering to win two straight over the Padres to run their record to 49-42.  If any of the other Expansion Three teams experienced any semblance of success, the Jays may not be in first place as of this writing.

A lot of their problems can be traced to the pitching staff, which boasts only two hurlers with a sub-4.00 ERA in July.  Roger Clemens is only 2-2 this month, but has a solid 3.71 ERA and is striking out more than a batter an inning.  Clemens is having a nice season so far (10-6, 3.62), but those numbers are a bit deceiving, as he’s posted a 5.18 ERA in his last seven starts dating back to June 16.  Only a complete game shutout over the Red Sox on July 8 has his numbers more respectable.

Except for Mark Eichhorn, who hasn’t allowed a run in 10 2/3 innings of relief, the rest of the staff is struggling.  Jimmy Key is 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA; Roy Halladay is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA; David Wells is 1-2 with a 6.59, which prompted his demotion to Triple-A; A.J. Burnett has a 7.88 ERA in three appearances; and Dave Stieb was also sent packing after he went 0-3 with a 10.93 ERA.  Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman were called up from Las Vegas to help stop the bleeding, and Burnett was thrust into the rotation.

The bullpen hasn’t been much better.  Closer Tom Henke is 4-for-4 in save situations so far this month, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.77 ERA.  Duane Ward is at 4.60, B.J. Ryan’s at 5.87, and Scott Downs is at 7.36.

The offense has been led by Devon White, who is hitting .394/.474/.636 this month, and Carlos Delgado, who is batting .306/.403/.484 in July and is one of the league’s best hitters at .332/21/59.  Delgado ranks second in slugging, on-base average, OPS, and RC/27 to Lou Gehrig, and is among the top 10 in home runs.  Tony Fernandez is hitting .333 with 10 runs scored, and Roberto Alomar is hitting .284 with a team-leading 14 RBIs.  Alex Rios (.173), Lloyd Moseby (.208), Troy Glaus (.698 OPS), and Rance Mulliniks (.152) are slumping badly, although Moseby has managed to score 12 runs in 20 games.

D’Rocks: Not surprisingly, the D’Rocks are winning games with their bats and not their arms; they rank seventh in the SHL in runs scored, averaging almost six a game, but are 25th in team ERA at 5.12 and 23rd in runs allowed, surrendering 6.2 per game.  According to Pythagorus, the D’Rocks should have a losing record, but they’re three games over .500 at 47-44.

Troy Glaus was named SHL Batter of the Month in June after hitting .345 with 10 homers and 23 RBIs, and he’s leading the team in RBIs this month with 13, putting him only five behind team leader Larry Walker, who has 67 on the year.  Walker is currently battling Luis Gonzalez and Todd Helton for Batter of the Month honors in July.  Walker is hitting .416/.477/.623 with three homers and 11 RBIs; Gonzalez is at .359/.406/.688 with five homers and 12 RBIs; and Helton is at .406/.438/.638 with three homers and 13 RBIs.  Among batters with at least 250 at-bats, all three rank in the top 25 in OPS, and only three hitters have better marks than Gonzalez’s 1.008.

The pitching is a much different story, although the team has gotten solid performances from at least four of its hurlers this month.  On the whole, there isn’t one D’Rocks pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA, but three of them—Randy Johnson (12-7), Curt Schilling (12-8), and Brandon Webb (10-7)—have at least 10 wins, and Johnson (4.10) and Schilling (4.16) have respectable ERAs.  But there are currently seven pitchers in the organization with ERAs over 6.00, including Miguel Batista (6-6, 6.08) and Danny Haren (1-4, 6.35).  And after allowing only five runs in his first 22 2/3 innings (1.99), closer Jose Valverde has posted a 9.45 ERA in his last 15 appearances to raise his mark on the year to 4.75.

The good news for the D’Rocks is that Aaron Cook has been very good since moving into the rotation, going 4-1 with a 4.01 ERA and leading the team with a 3.57 ERA in July.  Haren has found new life pitching out of the pen, recording a 3.86 ERA and one save in 10 appearances this month, and Schilling is 3-1 in four starts.  The bad news is Johnson is 0-5 with a 6.82 ERA and hasn’t won or posted a quality start since June 28.

Mariners: Seattle is in the same boat as the D’Rocks: lots of offense, but little pitching.  The Mariners are ninth in the SHL in runs scored, averaging 5.9 per game, and 26th in runs allowed, surrendering 6.4 per contest.  According to Pythagorus they should have a losing record, and they do at 42-49.  Considering they boast some pretty good left-handed batters in Ichiro, Junior, Raul Ibanez, and Ken Phelps, with Alvin Davis coming off the bench, it’s surprising the M’s are only 26-40 vs. righties.

But a closer look at July’s numbers illuminates the reason the Mariners are struggling this month.  Most of their best hitters, including Edgar Martinez, are in a terrible slump.  Edgar is batting only .225 with a homer and three RBIs in 20 games.  Junior is hitting .267 with a homer and 14 RBIs; A-Rod is hitting .247 with a homer and five RBIs; Ichiro is hitting .258/.292/.339; and Danny Tartabull is batting .245 with only three RBIs.

Phelps, on the other hand, is on fire, hitting .339 with nine homers and 20 RBIs, Ibanez has an OPS of 1.017, and Jay Buhner and Davis are hitting .520 and .412, respectively, with three home runs, but neither is a full-time starter.

The pitching staff still hasn’t come together either; the starters are mostly brutal, the relievers mostly fantastic.  The Mariners boast four relief pitchers with ERAs of 2.93 or less, led by Arthur Rhodes who has the team’s best mark at 1.93.  Enrique Romo has been fantastic since being called up from Tacoma, going 3-0 with a save and a 2.49 ERA.  Mike Schooler has two wins, a save, and a 2.54 ERA, and Norm Charlton is 3-1 with a save and a 2.93 ERA.  Unfortunately, Charlton, the team’s new closer, hasn’t had many save opportunities of late because the M’s are 1-8 in their last nine games and have been losing by an average score of 7-4.

Now for the bad news: Erik Hanson is the team’s best starter at 8-8 with a 4.93 ERA.  Even worse, he’s 1-2 with a 5.46 in four July starts.  Randy Johnson, the team’s second best starter (8-9, 5.18), is holding down the fort this month with a 3-2 record, 3.48 ERA, and 34 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings.  But the rest of the starting staff has been awful—Floyd Bannister is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA; Felix Hernandez is 1-3 with a 7.18 ERA; and Freddy Garcia is 1-2 with a 9.19 ERA.  Mark Langston would appear to be part of the answer, as he’s 10-3 with a 2.38 ERA in Triple-A, but he went 1-4 with an 8.66 ERA in seven major league starts earlier in the year, so perhaps he’s not the answer the M’s are looking for.

Marlins/Rays: The team from Florida has very little to cling to at this point in the season, so hopefully it’s as sunny in virtual Florida as it is in the actual state.  They’re 26th in runs scored, averaging 4.8 a game, and last in runs allowed, surrendering 7.1 a game.  It’s no wonder they’re 27-64.

Their leader in wins, A.J. Burnett, has only six and sports a not-so-impressive 6.19 ERA.  Their leader in ERA among the starters, Kevin Brown, sits at 4.81, but has only five wins.  Their leader in strikeouts, Josh Beckett, has 113 in 129 innings, but has been largely terrible at 3-11 with a 6.00 ERA.  And James Shields and Scott Kazmir are a combined 6-17 with a composite ERA of 5.29, with two trips to the DL.

Robb Nen (2-3, 3.63) and Kevin Gregg (1-0, 3.75) have been solid in setup roles, but closer Bryan Harvey has been abysmal (2-5, 5.14, and five blown saves in 19 opportunities), as has been Roberto Hernandez (0-3, 5.43), Antonio Alfonseca (1-0, 5.20), and Danys Baez (1-0, 8.92).

The Marlins/Rays lineup has been consistent, if nothing else.  Four of their regulars have OPSs in the .800s (Carl Crawford is close at .792), and six of them have at least 10 home runs.  Not surprisingly, their best hitter is Gary Sheffield who’s hitting only .284, but is leading the team in slugging (.508), OPS (.886), home runs (17), RBIs (52), and runs scored (61).  Miguel Cabrera is batting .304 with 14 homers and 51 RBIs; Hanley Ramirez is hitting .288 with 10 homers, 52 RBIs, and 19 steals; Aubrey Huff is hitting .308 with 10 homers and 44 RBIs; and Crawford is hitting .290 with 10 homers, 60 runs, and 34 stolen bases.