Free Agents Will See Modest Money Rebound

Peter Gammons in an online ESPN column speculated that reduced attendance in 2009 will lower the paydays for the 2010 free agent class.  Attendance is down, but it projects to be only about 6 million below last season’s 78.6 million in total attendance.  The variety of revenue sharing money that each team dips into may be down as well (see link).  But if the modest downturn in attendance is any indication, MLB, Inc. revenue sharing will cushion the fall of even the lower tier teams.  The free agent market that tanked last season when economic uncertainties abounded, will bounce back much the way Wall Street has.

Last February free agents like Adam Dunn who had been counting on big payday increases, were forced to take less.  The depths of the economic crisis were not known at the time.  Banks and investment houses were failing and no one knew how many dominoes were going to fall before it was all over. 

The 2009 season has played out against the backdrop of economic recovery.  But like the economy, attendance did not tank completely.  Attendance was down in 2008 modestly–by .2 million.  So the 5.8 million fewer fans in 2009 may look relatively good to owners who were far more worried six months ago than they are now.  They may have lost the few rank-and-file fans still attending major league games, but those who are hurting in this economy could barely afford a game before the crunch.

The market for free agents in 2010 will be driven less by the fading crisis than by shrinking supply.  There is a paucity of big names available.  Jason Bay and Matt Holiday are the best offensive players available along with Carl Crawford.  John Lackey and Cliff Lee are two of the best of the pitchers who will be dialing for dollars.  Scarcity will get them that Mercedes-Benz.

In 2009 the early free agent signings were the big ones–AJ Burnett got  $82 million for five years and Derek Lowe got $60 million for four.  But Manny Ramirez ran into trouble and when he tried playing hard to get he got burned with only a two-year deal for $45.  As the market got worse, guys who tried to wait it out like Dunn and Orlando Hudson had to take far less than they had hoped.

That will not happen this year unless the economy takes a turn for the worse.  But the class of free agents that will benefit from the relatively modest rebound is much less impressive.  There are no closers like Brian Fuentes and Frankie Rodriguez.  The slim pickens will drive up prices.  The rich teams will be looking to add pieces and there is so little available that bidding wars are likely.

So Gammons, who opined that Strasburg would get $50 million, is off on his economics again.  Lower attendance is going to be a non-factor in defining the 2010 free agent market.  It is more likely that marginal players will get the pay checks that better players could not find in January and February of 2009. 

Baseball will be unfazed by the economy in 2010 because Wall Street is fat and happy again.  Unfortunately, major league baseball is a game too much by, for and of more affluent Americans.  It will is no longer a diversion for those affected by double-digit unemployment and the net affect of the bad economy may be to weed out even working class fans.