Roto Chronicles: American League – March 31

Review of the American League fantasy market as of March 31.

Well, its finally here. The real opening day of baseball is upon us. To baseball fans, this is a national holiday. Call in sick from work and enjoy the dawn of a new season of hope for your hometown heroes. Or fantasy heroes as it may for some of us. Let’s take a final look back at the spring and that dream we had during our REM sleep cycles of the Red Sox and Athletics playing two games in Japan last week.

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Robinson Cano, 2B – NYY (UP) The steady second baseman from New York is on the verge of becoming a star on a team of stars. Cano has flown under the radar in his time in New York, but an increasing BB/K ratio and consistent quality production with balls in play is propelling him up the Yankee lineup. Cano has only struck out twice in 65 at-bats this spring while hitting .446 with two home runs with 19 RBI and three stolen bases.

• Carlos Guillen, 1B/SS – DET (UP) So far, so good for Carlos Guillen and his move to first base. His spring stats look like a prototypical star first baseman would. He is hitting .313 with a .716 slugging percentage and seven home runs in 67 at-bats. Add this to his remaining eligibility as a shortstop and batting in the middle of a tremendous lineup, and Guillen is a very valuable fantasy player.

• B.J. Upton, 2B/OF – TB (UP) High strikeout totals may still limit his batting average, but Upton is showing no signs of slowing down yet. In 44 at-bats, Upton is hitting .326, with a slugging average of .609 and has 11 RBI. Upton owners will also benefit from having his multiple position eligibility.

• Jermaine Dye, OF – CHW (Down) Dye saw his OPS drop 202 points last season from his 2006 career year. He will be a value pick this season, but will he rebound to produce value? Thus far the answer looks to be towards no, but it is spring training. Dye has a terrible 3 to 21 BB/K ratio in 70 at-bats. He is only batting .186, but does have 4 home runs.

• Alex Rios, OF – TOR (Down) Rios looks to be a valuable player in fantasy leagues for the foreseeable future. He combines power and speed to give well –rounded value. However, for this week and for this spring he is struggling. He is batting .175 with a .316 slugging percentage in 57 at-bats.

• Jason Varitek, C – BOS (Down) Time Change? Traveling Overseas? Some bad fish? Whatever it was, it caused Varitek to struggle in Japan last week. In the opening series against the A’s he struck out six times in eight at-bats!

Pitchers

• Jeremy Accardo, CL – TOR (UP) The B.J. Ryan injury clears the path for Accardo to start as the Jays’ closer for at least the first month of the season. Accardo also filled in for Ryan last season, saving 30 games with a 2.14 ERA. He has struggled a little this spring, allowing 10 hits (3 HR) in 8 innings, but the job security definitely increases his value.

• Rich Harden, SP – OAK (UP) Harden limited the Red Sox to a solo home run in six innings while striking out nine. He again showed the glimpse of greatness we have grown accustomed to. If his shoulder can hold up for any stretch of time, Harden owners easily have one of the top pitchers in the game.

• Jake Westbrook, SP – CLE (UP) Westbrook slumped through the first half of 2007 with a 6.27 ERA as he battled injuries and inconsistency. After the All-Star break, Westbrook posted a fine 3.44 ERA in 104 innings. He has been near un-hittable this spring. In 18 innings he has struck out 20, allowed only seven hits and not allowed any runs. He is a sleeper pick if you are looking for wins and a respectable ERA.

• A.J. Burnett, SP – TOR (Down) A broken fingernail may be to blame for Burnett’s bad spring. He was unable to throw his curveball most of camp, but even when he could start throwing it, the pitch was ineffective. Burnett has a less than ideal 9 to 8 BB/K ratio and allowed 23 hits in 18 1/3 innings. His spring ERA stands at 7.36.

• Troy Percival, CL – TB (Down) One bad outing shouldn’t take your job away, especially in spring training. Yet, one can’t help but notice a seven-run inning against a closer who has had multiple arm problems in recent years. Also, Al Reyes the former closer and current set-up man has had a fine spring. The closers role in Tampa may be interesting this year.

• Dontrelle Willis, SP – DET (Down) A hot topic of debate is whether Willis can return to form after his change of scenery. However he has had two years to reclaim this status. In these two seasons, his K/BB ratio has decreased by nearly half and his HR/9 rate has more than doubled. He is again not showing any command this spring. He has an 8.64 ERA and walked 15 batters in 16 2/3 innings pitched.

INJURY REPORT

The first round of position player injury news is highlighted this week. Also, an update to last weeks’ pitcher notes, Kelvim Escobar is now doubtful for the season after revealing that he has a tear in his right-shoulder that may require season ending surgery.

Rocco Baldelli’s career may be in jeopardy as he has been diagnosed with a rare abnormality that leaves him fatigued after workouts. The Rays also have announced that they declined his option for 2009 and placed him on the 60-day disabled list, making his future looking even bleaker.

Oakland placed Eric Chavez on the D.L. due to back soreness. He is projected to return in the middle of April…Jack Hannahan will play third in his place and at the declining rate Chavez’ career has been going; Hannahan may play more than that.

Gary Matthews, Jr. is listed as day-to-day after an ankle injury…this is the same ankle that he sprained last September. Don’t look for much from the stolen base department as he recovers.

Detroit placed Curtis Granderson on the disabled list with a fractured finger in his right hand. He will miss the first week or so of the season as the injury is retroactive to March 23rd…Brandon Inge will get some playing time in center during the absence.

Chicago placed outfielder Jerry Owens and infielder Danny Richar on the disabled list. Owens, who makes his living with his legs, has a tear in his groin, which will sideline him through April…Richar lost the second base job, and now will be out until May with a stress fracture in the rib cage…This bodes well for Cuban import Alexei Ramirez who will see time in both places.

Surgery was required to insert a screw into Scott Rolen’s broken finger. He will most likely miss most of April…Marco Scutaro will fill in at third.

WALKING THE WIRE (Possible Waiver Wire Pickups)

• Alexei Ramirez, 2B/OF – CHW Ramirez left Cuba this winter to pursue a chance in the big leagues with the White Sox. While in Cuba, Ramirez posted a career .334 average with 73 home runs and 328 RBI in 521 games. Manager Ozzie Guillen has described his defense as “rough,” but can’t deny his talent at the plate. He has a .358 batting average, seven doubles, two home runs and 18 RBI this spring. Pair this with injuries to Danny Richar and Jerry Owens and the White Sox looking to move Juan Uribe , and Ramirez’ path to playing time is opening up rather quickly

• Carlos Gomez, OF – MIN It’s official, Gomez has won the starting job in center field for the Twins. Both of his competitors, Denard Span and Jason Pridie were demoted to AAA to start the season. If you are looking for some stolen bases, grab him now! His speed has been compared to Jose Reyes, if not faster by some accounts. However, make sure you can absorb a low batting average as he matures. He also just suffered a hamstring cramp last week, which lists him as day-to-day. He is currently hitting .267 with 10 steals this spring.

• Matt Garza, SP – TB The former Twins prospect has solidified the number two-starter role with the Rays out of spring training. Garza has a solid mid-90s fastball along with an improving changeup that can accumulate strikeouts. The first two starts of the season are favorable match-ups against Baltimore and Seattle. Garza has a 2.45 ERA in 25 2/3 innings this spring.

• Al Reyes, RP – TB The Rays did sign Troy Percival to act as the team’s closer for the next two seasons, but when was the last healthy year he had? It’s been four years since he was a full-time closer. That’s why Al Reyes should be looked at. Reyes did close out 26 games last season and will be looked upon again should Percival falter. So far this spring, Percival has an ERA of 10.13, while Reyes’ is 1.23.

FUTURES MARKET

Last week, I highlighted the top rookies coming into the 2008 season. From here on out this section will be covering the top prospects, which are not in the majors, but have the potential to make the earliest fantasy impact.

The Rays reassigned Evan Longoria to AAA Durham last Monday. This may be based on the fact that if they hold him off the major league roster until June, his arbitration eligibility will be held back another year.

Josh Fields should not be a happy camper. He has proven he can play at the major league level, yet the White Sox are again sending down the young slugger. Joe Crede may have “won” the job for now, but Fields will be there before the season is out. The question is, can the White Sox trade Crede before Fields takes over the job for good?

Jarrod Saltalamachia will be playing nightly this summer, just not initially with the Rangers. Gerald Laird has won the catching job for the time being, but look for Saltalamachia to be back up soon. When recalled, he has the potential to be a top ten catcher.

Angels’ prospects Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart missed the cut as well this spring. Wood will be moved back to shortstop at Salt Lake to increase his chances to get into the Angels lineup this season. He proved why he is considered an all or nothing hitter this spring; he hit .127 with three home runs and 22 strikeouts. Adenhart, one of baseball’s brightest pitching prospects, struggled in his last spring outing, allowing Dustin Moseley to win the fifth starter position. With the injuries to the Angels’ rotation, he will get his chance soon enough.

Wladimir Balentien was thought to have a chance to make the club initially as a backup outfielder and DH, but the Mariners wisely chose to keep him on the field every day. He is a power prospect with some speed, hitting 24 home runs, and stealing 15 bases in AAA Tacoma last season. He will likely be recalled in the near future and become an impact fantasy player.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Buy – Hank Blalock, 3B – TEX
Blalock has become a forgotten man at third base, as he has struggled through a tough stretch the past two seasons. Blalock hit only .266 with 16 home runs in 2006, the worst season of his career, before bouncing back in 2007 to post a solid .901 OPS. However, he was limited to 208 at-bats due to a surgery to treat a diagnosed thoracic syndrome. He is batting .368 this spring with four home runs and 16 RBI in 57 at-bats. If he stays on the field, he will give great value for the cost. He has potential to hit at least .280 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI.

Sell – Magglio Ordonez, OF – DET
Just for the simple fact that he hit .363 last season. I am not saying he can’t repeat it or increase his power to keep his value, but based on career production the only stat out of the norm was his BABIP. And odds are that he won’t repeat that. His career BABIP has been just above the MLB average until 2007. This may sound like last week and Jorge Posada, but Ordonez hit .385 on balls in play, 67 points above his career mark. Take those 67 points away and you have lower totals across the board. Experts have projected Ordonez to fall between a .292 average with 18 home runs to a .317 hitter with 25 home runs. Thus he may have hit a ceiling and should be looked at as a sell option.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL FIRST BASEMAN

1. David Ortiz
2. Justin Morneau
3. Victor Martinez
4. Travis Hafner
5. Carlos Pena
6. Carlos Guillen
7. Nick Swisher
8. Paul Konerko
9. Alex Gordon
10. Billy Butler
…

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.