Roto Chronicles: American League – April 14

“Be aware that there will be saves available in the free-agent pool eventually…” Jason Grey, ESPN.com

The theme for week two of the fantasy season was the bullpen. Already in this young season we are seeing some bad pitching late in games. In the American League alone, Joe Borowski, Francisco Rodriguez, Jeremy Accardo, J.J. Putz and Huston Street have all been hurting or struggling to finish out games. This has sent fantasy players seeking out the likes of Mark Lowe and Scot Shields to fill voids. Yet, at the same time we have seen the emergence of new closers, such as Joakim Soria and George Sherrill. Both on teams who initially were projected to be towards the bottom of their respective divisions, but with their team’s early success, are currently leading the league in saves.

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Joe Crede, 3B – CHW (UP) Lucky for the Sox, holding onto Joe Crede may actually work out. We soon forget that he won a Silver Slugger award in 2006 before back problems shelved him for much of 2007. Now healthy, he is looking to continue building upon his success from 2006. He is off to a hot start, hitting .341 with four home runs and league-leading 15 RBI. If he remains healthy and in Chicago, he should hit around 25 homers and drive in 80.

• Aaron Hill, 2B – TOR (UP) Toronto is committed to Aaron Hill through at least 2011 and fantasy owners should take note too. Hill emerged as a solid second base option last season hitting .291 with 17 homers, 78 RBI and 87 runs scored. His power was questioned, however, as his HR/Flyball rate more than doubled his 2006 rate. Yet, he is off to a solid start, hitting .326 with one homer, nine RBI and one stolen base.

• Luke Scott, OF – BAL (UP) Scott is a much underrated outfielder. His hot start to 2008 may help catch the eyes of the baseball world. His 162 game seasonal average is a batting line of .278 AVG/.370 OBP/.521 SLG with 19 home runs and 75 RBI. He is currently hitting .361 with a home run and six RBI. He will give solid production as a fourth outfielder in mixed leagues, but don’t count on his hot start to be the beginning of a huge breakout. Though, with that short 318’ porch in right at Camden Yards, he might be a 25-30 homer guy.

• Carl Crawford, OF – TB (DOWN) A top five fantasy outfielder to start the season, Crawford has yet to notch a single extra base hit. He is batting only .208 with four RBI and four stolen bases. He did start to snap out of his mini slump with a brief four game hitting streak before going 0-4 Saturday night. One positive for Crawford is his improved ability to put the ball in play. He has only struck out five times in 55 plate appearances.

• David Ortiz, DH – BOS (DOWN) Frustration is beginning to set in for Ortiz. He is now in the middle of a career-type slump, he only has three hits in 43 at-bats to start the season. He has still been drawing walks and striking out at near normal career rates, thus showing it has more to do with BABIP. It currently stands at .063, when his career average is .310. He will come around soon. Ortiz is too good of a hitter to endure much more.

• Jim Thome, DH – CHW (DOWN) Thome exploded out of the gate on opening day with two home runs off of Indians’ ace C.C. Sabathia, but has failed to hit another since. He has only had five hits since then. He is currently hitting .171, but the most disturbing part is his lack of walks. Thome has been known for his ability to work pitchers for walks throughout his career, but so far he is seeing less pitches than usual and has only worked four walks to his twelve strikeouts.

Pitchers

• Felix Hernandez, SP – SEA (UP) King Felix is off to a terrific start once again this season. He has only managed one win, but has a fine 1.66 ERA in 21 2/3 innings pitched. In his two no-decisions he did not allow any earned runs, but in his last outing when allowing four runs, got the win. It’s funny how that works sometimes. He is showing no signs of wear and tear on that young arm and is developing into a definite ace.

• Edwin Jackson, SP – TB (UP) Once one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Jackson has struggled to transfer his talents to the major leagues. The Devil Rays exhibited patience with him and after a terrible 2007 season put him back into the rotation to start 2008. He has rewarded them with 14 solid innings of work against playoff contending teams, giving up one run on only seven hits. Long-term sustainability is a question, as he will typically pitch against tough competition in the AL East, plus his solid start to the 2008 season has been aided by a lucky .192 BABIP against.

• Chien-Ming Wang, SP – NYY (UP) Wang threw a two-hitter against the Red Sox Friday night for his third win of the season. In 22 innings of work his ERA stands at 1.23 while allowing only 12 hits. Wang will once again be the main starter for the Yankees and should rack up 18 or so victories with a good ERA and WHIP. We know he can do this in the regular season, but the question remains, can he replicate it in the playoffs?

• A.J. Burnett, SP – TOR (DOWN) Burnett has struck out over eight batters per nine innings over his career, but through three starts has only struck out seven batters in 16 1/3 innings. Thus, he is giving up more hits, which has helped lead to an ERA of 6.61. He did not fair to well this spring either, walking nine and striking out only eight in 18 1/3 innings. For the Blue Jays and Burnett owners, let’s hope this is an aberration and not a developing trend.

• Jose Contreras, SP – CHW (DOWN) Contreras is off to another inauspicious start this season, he is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. He is still exhibiting a lack of command of the strike zone, walking seven batters, throwing two wild pitches and only striking out four. Plus, the trend of an increasing BABIP is continuing, it has increased from .267 in ’05 to .334 in ’07, and now is at .356. The end of the road may be nearing for the 37-year old right hander.

• Paul Byrd, SP – CLE (DOWN) A throwback in style, Byrd should try and turn back the clock on his own career. He is not fooling many batters anymore. He may have won 15 games last season, but he had a lot of luck as he stacked the bases quite often. He allowed 267 base runners in 192 innings. So far this year he has allowed 17 batters to reach base in 7 1/3 innings and has an ERA of 11.05.

INJURY REPORT

Big news last week was Francisco Rodriguez’ sprained ankle and the scramble in the Angel’s bullpen to fill his closer’s role. An MRI showed no damage and he made an appearance Sunday allowing a run on two hits. Going forward, be aware that he was experiencing a decrease in velocity due to the injury, and was topping out in the low 90s with his fastball.

Erik Bedard was a late scratch from a start for the second time in a week due to pain in his hip on Sunday. He will throw a bullpen session on Monday to test it and a timetable will be set for his next start. You now have to start wondering if this could be a developing problem.

Derek Jeter will be returning from an injury Monday night. Jeter’s quad injury led the Yankees to call up Alberto Gonzalez to play short in his absence. Jeter’s value will take a slight dip, as he will most likely not be running to steal bases for awhile.

Surprise, Surprise…Rich Harden is back home on the disabled list. He is having back problems, which prompted the A’s to shelve him until at least April 18^th. The good news for Harden owners is that the injury is not arm related and he should be fine for his next start, which has yet to be determined.

World Series MVP, Mike Lowell, suffered a sprained left thumb. An MRI showed minimal damage and what looked like an extended stay on the DL, will likely only be a couple weeks. In the meantime Kevin Youkilis will play third and Sean Casey will move into the lineup at first.

Tampa starter, Matt Garza, was placed on the disabled list with what is called a radial nerve irritation. He will miss up to four weeks of action and return mid-May. Jeff Niemann was called up to take his place. Depending on your DL situation he might be worth keeping on the roster, but if you already have players more noteworthy stashed there, find a replacement.

The Tigers continue to struggle with injuries. Dontrelle Willis has hyper-extended his knee throwing a pitch Friday night which has landed him on the DL, Gary Sheffield is again feeling soreness in his injured finger and Carlos Guillen is suffering from a mild strain to his hamstring. It is probably time to move on past Willis, especially if he is to miss any time. Continue to monitor the Sheffield situation closely, even when playing, it must be bothering him. He has no extra base hits this season. As for Guillen, he is listed as day-to-day, which will open up another spot for Brandon Inge as Miguel Cabrera is playing first in his absence.

The opening day third baseman for the Tampa Rays, Wily Aybar, has been placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. You can now hear the cheers from the fantasy world, as this year’s phenom, Evan Longoria will now be up with the big club. Can he live up to the hype? Longoria made his debut Saturday going one for three with an RBI single.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Mike Napoli, C – LAA Looking more and more like the starting catcher for the Halos, Napoli has played in eight of the twelve games to start the season. It helps that he is hitting the ball well, and with some power, which he is known for. He is hitting only .233, but has three home runs and seven RBI. With regular playing time, Napoli should project as a hitter in the .250 range with 15-20 home runs and around 60 RBI. Napoli’s fantasy value was a bit confusing to start the year as he was battling defensive catcher, Jeff Mathis, for playing time. They split time last season, but it looks as if Napoli’s bat is winning the job.

• Carlos Quentin, OF – CHW Ozzie Guillen has been using Nick Swisher as the leadoff hitter, and says that Swisher will remain there for the “foreseeable future.” That means that the Sox must be leaning towards using Quentin more in left as a regular instead of playing a healthy Jerry Owens as the leadoff hitter/center fielder. Quentin struggled with injuries as a Diamondback a season ago, but is now healthy and showing his great arm and solid plate presence. He should benefit from U.S. Cellular Field as he hits about 40% of his ball-in-play in the air, which should translate well into power numbers. He is currently hitting .250 with a homer and ten RBI.

• Dana Eveland, SP – OAK Jhonny Peralta said Eveland was “lucky” after the lefty shut down the Indians, but now Eveland has shut down his second straight solid offense as Toronto struggled to score any runs. Maybe Peralta and the rest of the league should take notice. Billy Beane has an eye for talent, and Eveland may be the next great addition to the Athletics pitching staff. A former prospect in the Brewers organization, Eveland has moved to the Diamondbacks and then the A’s via trades. He has a stellar minor league track record, posting a 2.61 ERA with 406 strikeouts in 413 innings. In his previous major league starts, Eveland has not faired well, as his career ERA is 6.37, but at 24, he may now be ready to take a step up. He will take his 0.68 ERA into Chicago and Kansas City this week.

• Scott Shields, RP – LAA While Francisco Rodriguez is struggling with ankle problems, Scot Shields may be inserted into the closers role. He has been one of the preeminent setup men over the last five years, and there is no reason to believe he would fail in this position. He strikes out over eight per nine innings and keeps the ball in the yard, giving up less than one home run per nine innings during his career. Plus, the Angels don’t have much choice but to use him. Justin Speier who was used in the role Tuesday blew his first opportunity. While K-Rod may be back soon, there remains concern that an injury to his lower body will continue to lead to decreased velocity.

FUTURES MARKET

Garret Olson is the closest pitching prospect the Orioles have to the majors. He is currently pitching well for AAA Norfolk. In ten innings, his ERA stands at 0.90 and has struck out 11 batters. He has a solid three to one K/BB ratio in the in his minor league career, but struggled mightily in his debut with the Orioles last season. In 32 1/3 innings, Olson walked 28 batters and allowed 42 hits. He will get another shot soon with Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen struggling in the rotation.

Nick Adenhart was again impressive in his second start for AAA Salt Lake. He allowed one run over six innings while striking out six. He is the Angels top pitching prospect and will overtake Dustin Moseley at some point this season. The question is how soon he will be called upon.

While the Indians’ pitching has been shaky thus far, two prospects that would likely get the first calls to action are not ready. Adam Miller, the Indians’ top prospect, is still throwing simulated games in extended spring training before returning to the mound next week for AAA Buffalo. He is behind schedule due to a blister, which delayed his spring work. Aaron Laffey, who was the Indians’ fifth starter at the end of 2007, has given up 17 hits in 10 innings with a 5.40 ERA. Though a positive is that he is still inducing 67% ground balls and his K/BB ratio is normal, the outlying stat is his BABIP against. It stands at .436. If Paul Byrd continues to struggle, Laffey will again be in the rotation at some point this summer.

Mariners catching prospect, Jeff Clement, is off to a solid start. He is batting .346 with a home run and four RBI and is continuing to improve his plate discipline. Now at 25, he should get a shot very soon. This would be his third season at AAA. With Johjima now batting .118, who knows? Regardless, he will either be moved up to find time at DH and catcher, or he may be a trade deadline guy who moves on to get his chance. I would guess the first option.

Brandon Wood is continuing to display his raw power. He has six home runs in 45 at-bats, but as usual he has mixed in 18 strikeouts. He may soon get a shot at shortstop, as the platoon of Erik Aybar and Maicer Izturis has netted a only a single extra base hit in 62 at-bats.

Baltimore’s Matt Wieters may not be a prospect that will be on your roster in the near future, but he could be a late season call up this season and have a shot next year to be the Orioles catcher. He was the Orioles first round pick last season and is currently tearing up the Carolina League. He is hitting .524 with three home runs and seven RBI. His OPS stands at 1.621. He will likely be moved up to AA Bowie very soon.

Another catching prospect, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, is off to a terrific start for AAA Oklahoma. He is hitting .345 with two home runs and nine RBI. The Rangers are currently set with Gerald Laird at catcher, but Saltalamacchia does have a little history at first base where the Rangers are currently using journey-man Ben Broussard. It will be hard to keep him down if he continues to hit at this rate.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – C.C. Sabathia, SP – CLE It’s not going to get much lower than right now for C.C. owners. He is fresh off of another terrible start against the Oakland A’s and has now allowed 24 hits in 14 innings, while walking nine batters. His ERA stands at 11.57. Impatient owners may be looking to unload him. However, regardless of the walk totals, Sabathia is still throwing strikes at a 62.4% rate, very close to his career average. While his pitches may be uncharacteristically adding walk totals, the remaining pitches are just getting a little too much of the plate against an improved White Sox lineup, and an Oakland team in which he has always struggled against. In 14 starts versus Oakland he has a 2-7 record and a 6.84 ERA. A couple of positives for C.C. are that he still has the strikeout pitch working, striking out 13 batters in 14 innings, and his contact rate against is 80.3%. His career average is 78.9%. All in all, Sabathia is getting beat with an uncharacteristic increase in walks, with a similar strike ratio, and an uncharacteristic increase in hits allowed, with a similar contact rate against. I’d look to see if he is available before his numbers settle down and come back to norms. He definitely has the motivation in his contract year to do so.

• Sell – Joe Saunders, SP – LAA He may not be owned in your league yet, but if you happen to own him it might be time to sell. Saunders turns 27 this summer and should not advance his talent much further, his career ERA was 4.55 coming into 2008. Saunders does not have overwhelming stuff and is currently holding batters to an unsustainable .206 BABIP. Plus, of the 14 base hits allowed, only one is for extra bases. His SLG% against is a minuscule .233. He may end up being a solid back of the rotation starter, but this early in the season, you might find somebody looking for some pitching who might be interested in his great start.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL SHORTSTOPS

1. Carlos Guillen
2. Derek Jeter
3. Michael Young
4. Edgar Renteria
5. Orlando Cabrera
6. Jhonny Peralta
7. Julio Lugo
8. Yuniesky Betancourt
9. Bobby Crosby
10. Jason Bartlett

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.