Roto Chronicles: American League – June 9

There has been a change at the top of the American League shortstop rankings, who’s up and who’s down?

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Alexi Casilla, 2B – MIN (UP) The young rookie middle infielder has burst onto the scene and has been a very popular add among fantasy leaguers of late. He is getting on base, showing discipline, and stealing bases with his plus speed. He’s been a prospect for a couple of years that has been on the verge of playing as a big league regular and now looks to have finally broken through. He has even been hitting in the two hole in for the Twins, which should help with his runs scored total. Overall, Casilla is hitting .342 with three home runs, 18 RBI and 14 runs scored in 23 games. This run is likely not to continue, as he was hitting just .219 in Triple-A, and his BABIP and HR/FB rates are pretty far above normal abilities. Still, if he at least keeps an average above .275 he should be a worthy middle infielder for your team.

• J.D. Drew, OF – BOS (UP) With the loss of Big Papi from the Red Sox lineup, J.D. Drew will be counted on more to continue his solid power production and produce runs. He has been moved into Ortiz’ spot in the order, hitting third. This will allow for Drew to see better pitches batting in front of Manny and give him more RBI opportunities. Since May 17th, Drew has hit .361 with five home runs and 16 RBI. Overall on the season, Drew is rebounding to levels prior to his down year of 2007. He is again slugging over .500 with an OPS above .900. Just what the Red Sox signed him to do, they just had to wait a season to get it.

• Michael Young, SS – TEX (UP) A seemingly weekly tradition of putting a Texas Ranger in the up category happens again. This time it is Michael Young. He is always one of the most consistent hitters in the game today. Every time you look up at his stats, he has a .300 average and is on some sort of hitting streak. As of right now, the Ranger shortstop is in the midst of one of those streaks. He has hit safely in 22 straight, hitting .343 over this period with three home runs, 13 RBI, and 26 runs scored. He is looking like the top shortstop in the American League right now. However, keep an eye on a hairline fracture to a finger on his left hand, he will be trying to play through the injury.

• Emil Brown, OF – OAK (DOWN) As fast as he gained value, Brown has again lost it, and somehow remains over 30% owned in ESPN leagues. A month ago fantasy owners were salivating at the mouth to get the RBI totals of Emil Brown. At the time he was hitting like .450 with runners in scoring position, definitely not a sustainable average. Sooner or later his average and RBI production would take a hit, and it has. Since May 12th when he has hitting .283 with 33 RBI, Brown has hit .190 with four RBI. For the season now he is hitting just .250 and has even been relegated to platooning against lefties over the past week.

• Alex Gordon, 3B – KC (DOWN) We keep waiting for the tremendous talent of Alex Gordon to show up. There have been glimpses of it, but consistent play has yet to come. Once again Gordon is in a downturn. Since May 23rd, Gordon has hit just .175 with just three extra base hits, all doubles. This has brought his batting average down to .263 and his slugging percentage under .400. This is not acceptable for a player who was again touted before the season. A few good signs however are a slight increase in his eye, his BB/K has increased from 0.30 to 0.39, and his BABIP has increased to .331. Whether the power will ever progress is the question.

• Derek Jeter, SS – NYY (DOWN) The Yankee captain may officially be in the beginning stages of his regression. Over the past couple of seasons, we started seeing signs of this. His power has been in a decline as his HR/FB rate has dipped from a career high 17.1% in 2005 to a low of 6.2% this season. Also, his batting eye has been decreasing. It currently stands at 0.48 as compared to 0.56 last season and 0.68 in 2006. Jeter’s current batting average of .279, if carried out through the year, would be his lowest average of his career. While I believe the average will still go up into the .290-.300 range, there is no doubt in my mind that Jeter is not to be considered the top American League shortstop any longer.

Pitchers

• Jeremy Guthrie, SP – BAL (UP) Guthrie again turned in a stellar performance on Saturday afternoon. He pitched seven solid innings, allowing just one run on six hits, striking out six and walking none. This was his sixth quality start in a row, giving him a season ERA of 3.40 to go along with a 3-6 record. That record definitely does not show how well he has been pitching because of the poor run support given to him. While many, myself included, did not project much from Guthrie this season, he is proving doubters wrong and is pitching exactly to the level he pitched last season. That may not make him a top fantasy pitcher, but he is definitely a guy to use as a back-end of the rotation starter.

• Jon Lester, SP – BOS (UP) Lester may have gotten mixed up in the brawl last week, resulting in a five-game suspension, but that will only push his next start back one day to this Thursday. Even so, he has been an improving pitcher showing more command of the zone in the past month and is getting nearly 50% ground balls. This combination, and a reasonable HR/FB rate of just under 10%, have made Lester a success. His fielding independent ERA of 4.17 as compared to his real 3.50 ERA does hint to some luck, but even with a little regression, Lester is pitching for a great offense that will support him and provide Lester opportunities for some wins.

• Darrell Rasner, SP – NYY (UP) Not in the Yankees immediate plans at the start of the season, Rasner has been tremendous from day one working his way into them. In his five Triple-A starts to start the year, Rasner cruised to a 4-0 record and 0.87 ERA. That success, along with injuries and struggling rookies in the Yankees rotation was enough to bring him on up for another shot at big league hitters. Once handed the opportunity, he has not let go. Since his call-up Ranser has compiled a 3-3 record and an ERA of 2.58 in six starts. What has been most impressive is his great command, 1.17 BB/9. If that continues, Ranser is definitely a pitcher to watch and one who may rack up 10-12 victories with a respectable ERA the remainder of the season.

• Erik Bedard, SP – SEA (DOWN) There have been flashes of his brilliance, but overall Bedard’s season has been a fairly big disappointment to this point. Bedard may have had a decent stat line yesterday against a great Boston team, but he again was limited in innings due to high pitch count and walks. For the season he is now 4-4 with an ERA of 4.26. The most telling part of it is the significant decrease in K/9 and the increase in walks, which now stands at 29 in 61.1 innings. This has dramatically brought down his level of dominance and value as a fantasy pitcher. In some fantasy drafts this spring Bedard was being drafted in the first round. You know these owners are regretting it now.

• Zack Greinke, SP – KC (DOWN) As compared to the beginning of the season, Greinke is probably still up in value, but from where he stood just a couple of weeks ago, his value has taken a hit. In his past four starts Greinke’s ERA is 7.88, raising his season ERA to 3.77. His strike out rate has dropped, and he is beginning to allow more home runs. In his last two starts he has given up a total of six to the White Sox and Yankees. I don’t expect the decline to continue too much further, as Greinke should begin to level off right about where he is. He’s a solid control pitcher who should finish with an ERA around 4.00 and have a chance to win 12-14 games.

• Brian Burress, SP – BAL (DOWN) I hate to put in a guy that I feel is so insignificant to fantasy, but he has been a pitcher that has been owned of late in leagues. He had a string of solid starts in late April into May that saw his ERA as low as 3.16. Since that point he has made three starts and seen his ERA skyrocket upwards to 4.96. This is more of where he should be expected to be. He is not an overpowering pitcher and does not strikeout many, 4.17 per nine innings. He is prone to the long ball and at times struggles with his command. My suggestion is to drop him if you somehow still haven’t after these starts.

INJURY REPORT

As of last Monday when releasing the Roto Chronicles, David Ortiz was just day-to-day from a wrist injury, thus I left it out. In hindsight I should have included it, because it has since become a trip to the disabled list, as we all know. Ortiz will be out at least a month with a partially torn tendon in his wrist. Though, there does exist a chance that it could need surgery and he could be out much longer.

You can officially take Indians’ starter Jake Westbrook off of your fantasy watch lists. An MRI revealed damage to his shoulder that requires Tommy John surgery. He will be out this season and likely half of next as well.

Jeremy Bonderman’s attempt to recreate past success is over for the season as well. He is suffering from a blood clot in his shoulder, which requires surgery. It will likely sideline him for the rest of the 2008 season.

Santiago Casilla has begun a throwing program and will likely be back in the Oakland bullpen in the next week after a brief rehab assignment. If you kept him, obviously begin playing him. If he is available, watch to see how he performs upon his activation. He still could become a closer at some point for the A’s.

Also returning to the A’s will be designated hitter Frank Thomas. He is eligible to be activated for the weekend series in San Francisco, just in time to not be able to DH during interleague play.

Another DH expected back is Travis Hafner. He is eligible to be activated from the DL Saturday and has started swinging the bat in preparation for his return. He has been out with a strained right shoulder.

The Angels should be welcoming back the remainder of their infield very soon. Chone Figgins will begin a rehab assignment tonight with hopes of returning by the weekend and Erik Aybar will be re-evaluated by team doctors in hopes that he can begin his rehab by the weekend.

Carlos Pena’s season has continued to get worse as he fractured his left index finger. He has been placed on the disabled list and will likely be out until late June. Erik Hinske and Willy Aybar will platoon at first in his absence.

Way ahead of schedule, Toronto center fielder Vernon Wells was surprisingly activated over the weekend from his wrist and hamstring injuries suffered last month. He replaced an injured Shannon Stewart, who was placed on the disabled list with an ankle sprain, on Saturday and was back starting in center on Sunday.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Ryan Garko, 1B – CLE A breakout candidate before the season, Garko had a solid first two to three weeks of the season before a long slump killed his batting average. His batting average dipped as low as .228 as late as May 30th. He is now turning it around and hitting the ball well once again. Over the past week he has hit .448 and hit his fifth home run of the season on Friday. At this point the big breakout season may not happen, but a guy who can hit around .280 with solid power and RBI opportunities needs to be owned in mixed leagues.

• Nick Swisher, OF – CHW Mired in a terrible season–long slump, Swisher has shown signs of finally breaking out. He has hit in seven straight games, including a three for four day on Saturday and a two for four day on Sunday. Now that he is showing some signs of life, the power will come. Swisher remains a fly ball hitter in a home run hitters park and is available in nearly 70% of leagues. I suggest picking him up and reaping the rewards now that the worst is over.

• Scott Baker, SP – MIN Baker is back from his stint on the disabled list with the strained groin and is doing fine. In his first start upon activation he pitched five solid innings allowing two runs on five hits in five innings, walking one. He is not overpowering, but does show a solid K rate, excellent control, and a ground ball tendency. It is not unreasonable to project an ERA in the 4.00 range with 10-12 wins for this young right-hander.

• Joel Zumaya, RP – DET A player to begin watching come off of the waiver wire over the next couple of weeks is Joel Zumaya. With the ticking time bomb of Todd Jones closing, you never know how soon it may be before Zumaya becomes the closer in Detroit. His blazing fastball is again being recorded in triple digits on his rehab assignment. He may not return this week, but I suggest watching him very closely and if you have the space to wait it out, add him and stash him until his return.

FUTURES MARKET

Francisco Liriano had one start last week and it had mixed success. He pitched six innings allowing only four hits and striking out seven, but did give up three runs and walked four. It was not his best start on his rehab, but not his worst. What it did do however was give him his first victory in his comeback attempt.

Josh Barfield has to be frustrated at this point, not only at the Indians who continue to play the struggling Asdrubal Cabrera at second base, but at himself for not taking advantage of the opportunity. Barfield has continued to have problems at the plate. He is hitting only .253 and has a poor 13 to 48 BB/K rate.

Look for David Price to be moved up a level very soon. He is completely dominating the high-A minors. Even with his last outing where he gave up three runs on eleven hits in 5.1 innings, his season totals are 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA. He also has 23 strikeouts to only three walks.

An update to the status of Mariners catching prospect Jeff Clement who remains in the minor leagues after his brief call-up last month. Over his past ten games, Clement has continued to smash the ball at the Triple-A level. He has hit .314 with four home runs and ten RBI. This gives him a season average in Tacoma of .366 with 12 home runs in 40 games.

Another demoted prospect, Billy Butler, is enjoying success back at the Triple-A level. Sent down to regain some confidence, Butler looks to be doing just that. In nine games he has hit .375 with two home runs, a double, a triple, and five RBI. Butler will be back up this season, probably sooner rather than later if he keeps this up.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – Chien-Ming Wang, SP – NYY A player that I am buying into right now is Chien-Ming Wang. He has struggled of late, allowing five or more runs in four consecutive starts, but with his tremendous track record he is a solid buy candidate. He has continued to show an increased rate, 5.33 K/9, and is having some rather poor luck with his strand rate, currently 64.9%. Also of note is the fact that Wang has continued to decrease his batting average against to a career best .248. The main culprit of his recent struggle has been his command, which is at unprecedented levels for such a control pitcher. He currently is walking 3.59 batters per nine innings. His previous high was last season at 2.66. Overall, Wang is still a very solid pitcher that is not showing signs of any major problems. He is still backed by a very good offense and should still be in the running for at least 15 wins.

• Sell – Carlos Gomez, OF – MIN Oh, where oh, where has the speed gone. All of the sudden Carlos Gomez is imitating a power hitter. He has hit more home runs over the past month, three, than he has stolen bases, just two. It’s not as if he has stopped running, he has been caught five times over this month. Also, he has somehow been able to keep his average around .280 to this point with a poor 0.15 K/BB ratio. It can mostly be attributed to a high BABIP of .354 that is likely not sustainable. I still see him as a player who has potential this season to hit .265 or so, but if he is unable to keep stealing bases with that blazing speed, his average home run power is not enough to keep him as a top outfield play.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL SHORTSTOPS

1. Michael Young, TEX
2. Carlos Guillen, DET
3. Derek Jeter, NYY
4. Edgar Renteria, DET
5. Jhonny Peralta, CLE
6. Bobby Crosby, OAK
7. Orlando Cabrera, CHW
8. Yuniesky Betancourt, SEA
9. Marco Scutaro, TOR
10. Maicer Izturis,LAA

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.