Roto Chronicles: American League – July 7th

Why you need to sell Daisuke Matsuzaka right now…..

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Aubrey Huff, 1B/DH—BAL (UP) Very quietly Aubrey Huff is having a terrific season. As late as June 8th, Huff was hitting just .239, but still did have nine home runs. Since that date, Huff has hit .387 with eight home runs and 23 RBI. This gives him a .281 batting average with 17 home runs and 54 RBI. This hot of a streak won’t continue, but Huff should continue to provide solid power numbers, his HR/FB rate has jumped back to 15.3 percent after a career low 8.5 percent last season. Huff also has maintained his reasonable strikeout level of 14.9 percent. This along with his growing BABIP should keep his batting average around the .275-.280 range.

• Ian Kinsler, 2B—TEX (UP) The Texas second baseman just keeps on looking better and better. He’s also worked his way into the MVP award talks and deserves to be the starter in the All-Star game. Kinsler leads the league both in batting average, .332, and runs with 79. Not to mention that he also has 14 home runs, 53 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. He’s been the most valuable fantasy player in the American League this season. And it shouldn’t stop. He is showing a good line drive rate of 21.5 percent that has led to his .349 BABIP and he strikes out just 13.3 percent of the time. The .300-plus average will continue.

• Dustin Pedroia, 2B—BOS (UP) After struggling through late May and into June, Pedroia has been on fire of late. He has hit in 17 of his last 18 games, posting an incredible batting average of .473 to go along with five home runs and 21 runs scored. The most amazing part of the streak is that Pedroia has 12 multi-hit games out of the 18 games. There is no doubt that he is a hit machine. His 92 percent contact rate, 22.9 percent line drive rate, and .325 BABIP all point to him being a consistent .300 hitter. But he is also no Placido Polanco, Pedroia does have some power with nine home runs, and speed with nine stolen bases.

• Yuniesky Betancourt, SS—SEA (DOWN) Betancourt continues to post a great contact rate, but also continues to do very little with it. His lack of power has actually decreased this season, and he has just one stolen base after stealing 16 the past two years. He should raise his batting average back up into the .280’s, but that is not enough to make him worthy of any ownership. Especially since he is playing on a Mariner’s squad that is 28th in the majors in runs scored. If you still own him, move on.

• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF—BOS (DOWN) Ellsbury was easily the run away choice for the AL Rookie of the Year through May, but after slumping through the last month, he is behind the Rays Longoria. The main difference is the fact that Ellsbury is no longer walking more than he strikes out. Through May, Ellsbury had 27 walks to 19 strikeouts, since then Ellsbury has just three walks to 23 strikeouts. It will be up to him to make the adjustment that pitchers have made to him. If he is able to adjust, Ellsbury will continue to supply great numbers. He has a solid 22 percent line drive rate and a good 14 percent strikeout rate.

• Chone Figgins, 3B—LAA (DOWN) Never known for much power, Figgins is taking it to a new low this season. He has a total of eight extra base hits, and they are all doubles. This gives him a very distinct .040 ISO power. Also, Figgins has just 14 stolen bases and nine RBI. Assuming he keeps his current pace, this will be the third year in a row that these totals both will have decreased. He does however continue to post a solid line drive rate that should aid in keeping his average up. Though, an average alone with a handful of steals does not make a top fantasy player.

Pitchers

• John Danks, SP—CHW (UP) John Danks continued his stellar season Sunday with another quality start against the Athletics. He had a no-hitter into the sixth inning before giving up two runs on four hits in 6.2 innings. He also struck out nine. On the season, Danks is now 6-4 with a sparkling 2.52 ERA. The main reason for his turnaround has been his ability to transfer from being a fly ball pitcher into a ground ball pitcher. This has helped to keep the ball in the ballpark, and utilize his good K/BB ratio. All signs point to his continued success.

• Mike Mussina, SP—NYY (UP) Mussina continues to reinvent himself. The ability to overpower hitters is long gone, but Mussina still has his pinpoint control. He won his 11th game of the season Saturday after winning just 11 all of last year. The main reason for his success is his good K/BB ratio of 3.94, and his ability to induce batters into 43 percent ground balls. The only chink in the armor to pay attention to is a high 24.6 percent line drive rate allowed. He has been fortunate to only have a BABIP of .299 with this rate, but he has gotten away with it before. He should have a shot at 18 wins if he can continue this success.

• Brandon Morrow, RP—SEA (UP) While J.J. Putz continues to rehab his elbow, young Brandon Morrow is showcasing his stuff and looking like an elite closer. Since being inserted into the closers role, Morrow has converted all seven of his save opportunities and has yet to allow a run to score in these opportunities. He has tremendous strikeout ability, 12.04 K/9, and is continuing to show good command of the strike zone, only 2.60 BB/9. The walks are the key number to watch. In 63 innings a year ago, Morrow walked 50 batters. Though for the time being, enjoy the run while Putz is out.

• Joe Borowski, CL—CLE (DOWN) We’ve all known it was to come in the back of our minds, the Joe Borowski era is officially over. It really matters not if he latches on somewhere in terms of fantasy. I seriously doubt that a team will insert him as a closer again. Over his year and a half in Cleveland, Borowski had a 5.57 ERA and somehow saved 51 games. I guess magic can only last so long before people figure out how it is done. Cleveland will now go to a closer by committee approach with Masahide Kobayashi as the main fantasy target.

• Aaron Laffey, SP – CLE (DOWN) The AL Rookie pitcher of the month in May when he allowed a total of three earned runs, is now struggling to refind that success. While he still has a 5.16 ERA over his past four starts, Laffey is now walking more batters than usual. He has walked 11 batters over his past 22.2 innings. This along with his lack of strikeout production makes it difficult to be a solid fantasy starter. I’d expect him to right the ship in the near future, he does have a history of great control, but right now he is looking like a spot starter against weaker offenses.

• Garrett Olson, SP—BAL (DOWN) I am off of the Garrett Olson bandwagon for a while. I believed he was worthy of some spot starts, but Olson has consistently put up some pretty weak performances of late. Over his past five starts, Olson is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA. He has also not thrown at least six innings in any of these starts. For the season Olson is just striking out 5.81 batters per nine innings. This is from a pitcher who averaged about a strikeout an inning while in the minor leagues. If he is to become a fantasy worthy pitcher, this must come back up.

INJURY REPORT

The return of Eric Chavez barely even lasted a month. The Athletics placed the oft-injured third baseman or DH as it may be on the disabled list with inflammation in his surgically repaired shoulder. Pending the results of an MRI, further surgery may be required. Once again, Chavez teased and left us hanging.

The Athletics also placed shortstop Bobby Crosby on the disabled list. He strained his hamstring during Wednesday night’s game. He likely will just be out the two weeks, with Donnie Murphy getting his at-bats.

The Mariners placed Felix Hernandez on the disabled list with the sprained ankle that he suffered on June 23rd. It is not a severe injury, so expect to see Hernandez make his next start upon activation on July 9th. Hopefully he can keep his hot streak alive after the time off.

Angels’ catcher Mike Napoli will miss some time with inflammation in his right shoulder. He will likely be placed on the disabled list after an MRI that will be done today. Jeff Mathis will take over full-time duties.

Erik Bedard has had his next start pushed back after complaining of shoulder tightness after Friday nights game. There is no timetable of when the next start will be. He could even end up on the disabled list.

Johnny Damon left Saturday’s game against the Red Sox with a shoulder injury as he slammed into the outfield wall. He was then placed on the disabled list Sunday. He will miss at least the two weeks, maybe more.

Count out Kelvim Escobar on his ability to make a comeback this season. The right-hander woke up with soreness in his pitching shoulder a night after working three scoreless innings. The soreness was described as different than normal soreness that you feel after pitching and that was in the same exact spot as it was in the spring when he first felt the problem. Escobar will likely now have surgery.

Mariners’ closer, J.J. Putz, will begin a rehab assignment in the next week in the hopes of returning after the All-Star break. Because Brandon Morrow has done such a terrific job closing out games, manager Jim Riggleman stated that Putz will initially return in middle relief.

Troy Percival was again placed on the disabled list with hamstring issues. Percival was only active for about three weeks before the issue crept up on him again. If you own Percival, wait it out, but continue to be very cautious and possibly even pick up Grant Balfour if he is still available to have insurance against another injury.

Paul Konerko began a rehab assignment with AAA Charlotte over the weekend and plans on returning to the White Sox lineup Tuesday. Konerko is recovering from a strained oblique muscle.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Ramon Hernandez, C—BAL If you are looking for some catching help, do not look past Ramon Hernandez. A very slow start to the season caused many to overlook him, but a recent surge is placing him right back on the map. Since June 1st, Hernandez is hitting .283 with three home runs and 13 RBI. He is again hitting the ball well enough to post solid power numbers and a good batting average. He has a very good line drive rate of 22.1 percent that should be posting a much higher BABIP than .266, and is striking out just 13.4 percent of at-bats. He also has a decent 9.3 percent HR/FB rate, which with his increasing production should allow him to hit upwards of 15 home runs.

• Billy Butler, 1B/DH—KC After spending some time in AAA with Omaha where he refound his stroke, hitting .337 in 101 at-bats with five home runs, Butler was recalled last week. He responded by hitting .286 in his first week back and hit his second home run of the season. I would expect that number to start jumping as Butler does have power and a decent strikeout rate of 14.5 percent. In the long run he has the makings of a star, but right now, you should be able to get a .280-.290 average and 10 home runs from him the rest of the way.

• Scott Baker, SP—MIN There is no reason for Scott Baker to be only 10 percent owned in leagues, according to ESPN. Not only does he pitch for a contending team, have an ERA of 3.65, but he has a tremendous K/BB ratio of 4.75. He is only walking 1.57 batters per nine innings. This will keep his WHIP down as he only allows about a hit an inning. This also is a reason why his fielding independent ERA is just 3.98 when he does give up more fly balls than ground balls with 12 percent of them leaving the yard. I still project Baker as a 12-13 game winner with an ERA in the 3.75-4.00 range.

• Masahide Kobayashi, RP—CLE With the news of Joe Borowski being designated for assignment, Kobayashi will become the front-runner for saves out of the Cleveland bullpen. Kobayashi is one of the all-time great closers in Japanese history with over 200 career saves. While he has not been officially named the closer, he will get opportunities. He has been the one Cleveland reliever who has shown any sort of consistency this season. He is a control pitcher who will induce a lot of ground balls. He will not overpower anyone, but should get the job done.

FUTURES MARKET

After back-to-back sub par performances, Francisco Liriano bounced back this week with a 13 innings of scorless baseball. He also struck out 16 batters to only two walks. And over Liriano’s last 62.2 innings, he has a 6-0 record, a 3.59 ERA, 59 strikeouts, and only 12 walks. This is great news for his return.

Matt Wieters continues his onslaught on minor league pitchers. Weiters hit his first home run since being promoted to AA on Thursday night. Since the promotion, Wieters has hit .323 with that home run and three RBI. He also continues to show great discipline at the plate with six walks to three strikeouts in 31 at-bats.

Another top-five talent has made a successful jump to AA. In two starts since being promoted, David Price has pitched 12 innings, allowing two runs on nine hits, striking out 12. On the season now, the young Tampa Bay prospect has a 6-0 record with an ERA of 1.74. I wouldn’t count out the chance that we may see Price in September for a few innings.

The Mariners’ Wladimir Balentien obviously wasn’t ready when inserted into a major league roster this season, and he is still struggling since being demoted. Since the demotion, Balentien has hit only .213 in 61 at-bats even though he is showing better plate awareness, walking 12 times to his 11 strikeouts. Balentien will be back at some point this season, so I’d keep an eye on him. He won’t hit for much average this season, but could be a source of cheap power.

As the Indians decide what parts of their team to sell off over the next few weeks, a pitcher to watch is David Huff. Huff is another left-handed pitcher in the Indians organization that pounds the strike zone with consistency. In 97.2 innings split between AA and AAA, Huff has a 7-1 record, a 2.40 ERA, 100 strikeouts, and only 17 walks. It is an almost certainty that he will be up in the near future.

While the Red Sox continue to use Julio Lugo and his .939 fielding percentage and .697 OPS, Jed Lowrie remains in AAA Pawtucket. Lowrie continued to make his case to be the Red Sox starting shortstop with a great month of June, hitting .302 with four home runs and 21 RBI. In his brief call-up to the Red Sox in April, Lowrie hit .310 in 42 at-bats. If he doesn’t earn the job by the end of this season, look for Lowrie to start 2009.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy—A.J. Burnett, SP – TOR A pitcher you might be able to get at a low cost right now is A.J. Burnett. Just looking at his 8-8 record and 4.92 ERA, one might be willing to move him. I would definitely buy if you need some strikeouts for your team. Even though his strikeout rate is down from last season, he is still striking out more than his career rate of 8.21 K/9. Also, Burnett is having some bad luck. His Fielding Independent ERA of 3.55 is way under his 4.92 ERA. The main reason for this is his low 65.9 percent strand rate. That rate typically ranges in the mid-70 percent range. If he can keep his walks at a reasonable level (Burnett walked zero in his last start), he is one of the AL’s top starting pitchers.

• Sell—Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP – BOS I’ve said it before, and continue to believe that Matsuzaka needs to be sold as soon as you can. The time on the disabled list has done nothing to change the fact that Matsuzaka continues to walk batters like none other, especially from a pitcher who is generally considered one of the leagues best. For the season, Matsuzaka’s strikeouts are down (8.84 to 7.80 K/9), walks are way up (3.52 to 5.88 BB/9), and he has been generally lucky on balls in play. His BABIP of .254 is under his expected .286 BABIP according to his in-play rates, and he has just allowed 5.1 percent HR/FB, a number that is likely to regress back upward. Don’t be surprised by the end of the season when his ERA is in the 4.25-4.50 range or higher. Sell his 9-1 record and 3.12 ERA.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL RELIEVERS

1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
2. Mariano Rivera, NYY
3. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
4. Joakim Soria, KC
5. Joe Nathan, MIN
6. George Sherrill, BAL
7. Bobby Jenks, CHW
8. Troy Percival, TB – DL
9. B.J. Ryan, TOR
10. Huston Street, OAK

…

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.