Roto Chronicles: American League, July 28

A buy and sell you might not expect…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B—DET (UP) Cabrera posted consistently good numbers over the first three months of the season, but had yet to really put together a run of great numbers. He is currently on a nine-game hitting streak, and during the month of July is hitting .341 with six home runs and 26 RBI. Look for Cabrera to continue this and post a better second half of the season. His contact rates are up this year while his BABIP has decreased. This should level out and we should see a slight increase in batting average the remainder of the season. He is also experiencing some bad luck with his HR/FB rate of 13 percent, which usually ranges around 17 percent for Cabrera. Look for an average around .300 with another 12-13 home runs and 40 RBI this season.

• Robinson Cano, 2B—NYY (UP) As good as Cabrera has been of late, Cano has been even better. Hitting just .246 at the All-Star break, Cano is in the midst of an eight-game hitting streak entering Sunday night that has shot his average up to .270. Traditionally a second half hitter, he is again living up to the numbers. During this streak, Cano has seven multi-hit games, and is hitting .514 with three home runs and 10 RBI. Even with the first-half slump, Cano’s contact rates are up, striking out just eight percent of the time, and his line drive rates are up from last season, 20 percent from 16 percent. With this said, his BABIP has dropped nearly 60 points to .272 this season. This should not be the case and this will regress upwards and likely get Cano back to at least the .290 mark by seasons end.

• Alex Rios, OF—TOR (UP) With just four home runs at the All-Star break from a guy who hit 24 last season, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Rios would hit more in the second half. Well, he only needs one more to make that statement true just a week and a half into the second half of the season. Rios hit two home runs on Saturday to give him four since the All-Star break and eight total. With the home runs now coming, his line drive rate still above a very good 21 percent, and Rios still stealing bases (now 27), look for him to again put himself into the upper echelon of American League outfielders by seasons end.

• Jeff Clement, C—SEA (DOWN) Clement has yet to live up to the hype. He hit .337 with 14 home runs in AAA Tacoma this season, but has yet to crack the Mendoza line in Seattle. Clement is hitting just .171 with an uncharacteristic 42 strikeouts in 117 at-bats, nearly doubling historic rates. Now with a thumb injury suffered Thursday night, he is likely to sit out some time while it heals. Though, don’t push him aside just yet, he is still hitting for power when putting the ball in play. Plus, his .212 BABIP is not representative of his 22 percent line drive rate. Once he works through this injury and gets more of his balls in play landing for hits, Clement could have a strong finish.

• Jose Guillen, OF—KC (DOWN) Guillen hit .345 with seven homers and 25 RBI in June, but has hit rock bottom in July with a .148 batting average, no home runs and an OPS of .384. He is obviously not this bad, and to his defense Guillen has suffered from some back spasms, neck stiffness, and a groin injury of late. He will recover, but a terrible 0.14 BB/K rate will continue to limit his upside. His on-base percentage is just .287, which will not cut it as a hitter depended on so much in the middle of the lineup. He should continue to pitch in some homers with a decent 13 percent HR/FB rate, but watch him close. And if your league uses OBP, you have a decision to make.

• B.J. Upton, OF—TB (DOWN) Even though Upton is progressing with his plate discipline, too bad for him his ridiculously high .399 BABIP of last season could not be sustained. Still hitting a solid 19 percent line drives, Upton’s BABIP is now a more sustainable .341, which along with his 24 percent strikeout rate has put his batting average to .270. Also too bad for Upton, his spike in power could not be sustained. Upton’s 20 percent HR/FB rate of 2007 has dropped to just over seven percent giving him six home runs on the season. Look for him to rebound some in August as he as cooled quite a bit over the past six weeks. Upton has hit just .227 since May 31.

Pitchers

• Scott Baker, SP—MIN (UP) Scott Baker ownership levels are finally jumping as they should have already been. The Twins right-hander now sits at 7-3 and 5-1 over his past seven starts. His ERA is a solid 3.38, and he has excellent command of the strike zone with a 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Baker has been the beneficiary of an 84 percent strand rate, but even so, his ERA should be no higher than four. Should he remain available in your league, add with confidence that you have acquired a great back of the rotation fantasy starter. He won’t disappoint.

• Cliff Lee, SP—CLE (UP) What a story Cliff Lee continues to be this season. All he continues to do is put up seven or eight innings a night while allowing two or less runs. He also has 21 strikeouts to just one walk over his past 23 innings of work. And for the season, Lee is striking out six batters for every walk allowed, a truly remarkable stat. He also is again the league leader in ERA. All it took was for Justin Duchscherer to finally have a bad start. At 14-2, Lee is on pace to be the first Indians pitcher since 1974 to win 20 games. He also would likely give the Indians back-to-back Cy Young awards.

• James Shields, SP—TB (UP) Shields is off to a fine start to the second half of the season, the Tampa right-hander has two wins, a 2.35 ERA, and 0.78 WHIP in two starts after the break. This is by no means a long hot streak, but James Shields consistently puts up good numbers. All of his rates, from walk percent to HR/FB, to strand rate, to BABIP are very similar this season to his breakout campaign of a year ago. I am someone who desires consistency in a player and sees that as a definite added value. With this said, look for more of the same. Shields is 9-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to date.

• Zack Greinke, SP—KC (DOWN) Greinke’s terrific start has slowly reversed without exception. Here is a listing of his monthly ERA: 1.25, 4.38, 5.25, 6.14. We should expect a reversal in the near future as his skill level for the season says he is supposed to be right at his 4.06 ERA, but as we have seen in his past, Greinke can all of the sudden lose it on the mound. Though, that 2006 season’s struggle was due to many reasons, including a spike in his walk rate. Even with his recent downturn, Greinke continues to post a walk rate under three per nine innings. Thus, with the remaining numbers also similar to last season, look for a rebound to occur soon, maybe as soon as his next start in Oakland where he has a career 3-1 record and 2.18 ERA.

• Todd Jones, CL—DET (DOWN) A changing of the guard is occurring in Mo-town. Todd Jones is out and Fernando Rodney is in. I was all set to explain how this was about to happen, but Leyland beat me to my deadline. Though I, as most were, expected Zumaya’s name as the replacement. Anyway, Jones had blown two of his last four save opportunities, including one Friday night against the White Sox in an important series for the Tigers that sealed the deal. It was amazing that he had survived as long as he did. His line drive rate allowed is over 23 percent and he is walking more batters than he strikes out, which isn’t a lot. All in all, Jones’ saved 18 saves with an ERA of 4.99 and a high 1.54 WHIP as the Tigers closer this season.

• Kevin Slowey, SP—MIN (DOWN) As fast as the Slowey bandwagon filled up, it has emptied just the same. After running off a streak of four straight quality starts, Slowey has three poor starts including two against formidable lineups in New York and Detroit. Over his past three starts, Slowey has an ERA of 9.00 as the home runs have returned. Slowey has allowed a home run in each start. Though, he is not exactly keeping runners off of the bases either, allowing 25 batters to reach via walk or hit over these 15 innings. It is looking like Slowey may be a match-up pitcher for the time being until he catches fire again.

INJURY REPORT

We found out over the weekend that Jays’ starter Dustin McGowan is now going to have season-ending surgery to his shoulder. What was also found out is that McGowan was pitching with a partially torn rotator cuff as well that was diagnosed at the end of last season.

The White Sox have recalled Josh Fields from AAA Charlotte to fill in at third base while Joe Crede is on the disabled list. Crede’s back is again ailing. There is no timetable set for a return. Also, more on Fields later under the Futures Market heading.

The White Sox also placed set-up man, Scott Linebrink on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. The extent to the injury will not be known until he receives an MRI.

Nagging injuries are starting to multiply on the Rangers’ Milton Bradley. The latest happened when he was hit on the forearm by a pitch on Wednesday night. He was listed as day-to-day, but returned Friday night as the DH. Bradley has also suffered from knee tendonitis, and sore quads over the past month. Just keep an eye on him.

The Twins Carlos Gomez crashed into the outfield wall in Cleveland Friday night injuring his back. He was taken to the hospital and released after receiving a shot for the pain. He will likely sit for a bit while he heals up, but don’t expect a DL stint.

Cleveland welcomed back Fausto Carmona Saturday night against the Twins. Carmona who was out of the rotation since May 26, struggled early and could not make it out of the third inning giving up nine runs.

The Angels expect Jered Weaver to be able to make his next scheduled start tonight in Boston. Weaver left his last start against Cleveland in the fourth inning because of a knot on his right shoulder blade. Weaver is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA over his past five starts.

Oakland reliever Joey Devine, who is recovering from an elbow sprain is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment tonight. If all goes well he will be activated later in the week. He may even become the A’s closer if Huston Street is traded this week.

Frank Thomas has been testing his ability to run on his recovering quadriceps while continuing to take batting practice. He should begin a rehab assignment by the weekend with a possible return next week.

Bad news for Eric Chavez. A poor throwing session when testing his injured shoulder is leaving his future at third base in serious doubt. He stated that he is going to continue focusing on his offense and a likely switch to first base.

Kevin Millwood and his groin are at it again shelving the right-hander for another couple of weeks on the disabled list. It shouldn’t really matter in terms of fantasy, as you shouldn’t have him on your roster anyways. And if you do, shame on you.

Also on the Rangers’ front, C/3B Gerald Laird returned to the lineup on Sunday going three for four. Laird missed a month with a hamstring injury. Manager Ron Washington said that Laird will again receive most of the playing time behind the plate.

The Royals placed a couple on the disabled list, Jimmy Gobble and Joey Gathright. You should only take notice of Gathright, whose speed will be unavailable for a few weeks. Adjust accordingly, there has to be some other cheap speed to replace him for the time being.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Melvin Mora, 3B—BAL Still widely available, Melvin Mora can fill in at third base for your team if you lost Joe Crede. Mora has hit .325 with five home runs and 24 RBI in July. With his recent offensive surge, he now has a very respectable 15 home runs, 63 RBI and 50 runs scored. The batting average is just .249, but a low BABIP is mostly to blame. Mora continues to hit about 20 percent line drives, which should raise that number up along with his batting average. A .265 batting average and 20-25 home runs are definitely feasible.

• Denard Span, OF—MIN With the recent struggles of Carlos Gomez and the injury to Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span is getting plenty of playing time and is taking advantage. The former first-round draft pick is hitting .343 in July with 14 runs scored. He will not hit for any power, but if you need some speed in your lineup, Span is a fine option. He has a combined 20 stolen bases on the season between Rochester and Minnesota. We obviously can’t expect this hot streak to continue, but a .280 average with a handful of steals is possible. And if your league uses OBP, Span has a good walk rate that should give an OBP around .350.

• Francisco Liriano, SP—MIN Last call for the Twins left-hander. I’d imagine he is completely gone from leagues, but if for chance he is still sitting on waivers in yours, do not hesitate to add him. Liriano is 10-0 with a 2.67 ERA, 80 strikeouts and just 13 walks over his last 11 starts. No official word has been made on his promotion, but this should be the week. Whether it begins in the bullpen or not does not matter, a spot always opens up in a rotation for some reason and Liriano will fill it quite nicely.

• David Purcey, SP—TOR Purcey earned his first career major league win on Saturday with a victory over the Mariners. He threw six innings, allowed three runs on seven hits, but most importantly walked only one. In his brief time up earlier this season, Purcey walked 11 in two starts. Though, his minor-league track record the past two seasons suggest that he should walk about two and a half runners per nine innings. With Purcey’s strikeout ability, he could be a great sleeper in the second half. In AAA Syracuse, Purcey was 8-6 with a 2.69 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 117 innings.

FUTURES MARKET

Nick Adenhart’s name has been linked in many trade rumors over the past few weeks. And you really have to wonder what value remains after such a terrible season. At AAA Salt Lake, Adenhart is striking out seven batters per nine innings while walking nearly four and a half. This has been a major contributor in Adenhart’s 6-10 record and 6.18 ERA. If I were the Angels, I’d be looking at the options too. His walks have increased at each level he has been promoted to.

A player to watch a few years down the road in Oakland is power-hitting first baseman Chris Carter. He has been referred to as a Jermaine Dye type of hitter. In high-A ball this season in Stockton, Carter is hitting just .261, but a good walk rate gives him a .361 OBP. Carter also has 27 home runs and 82 RBI. Carter was acquired in the Dan Haren deal from Arizona, and previously straight up for Carlos Quentin from the White Sox.

A former first-round draft pick in the 2005 draft, Trevor Crowe has finally worked his way up to AAA after a couple of seasons in AA Akron. Crowe could become an option in the Indians outfield by the end of this season, depending on his success in Buffalo, likely as a September call-up. Crowe hit .323/.404/.485 in 198 at-bats with Akron this season. He also chipped in four home runs and 13 stolen bases. He projects as a possible leadoff hitter.

I usually don’t like to mention a major league player in this section, but Josh Fields was just recalled late last week to replace Joe Crede. Fields was a big time sleeper pick before the season started because of his power. Looking back now, you wonder if he should have even been viewed as such. Fields hit .248 with nine home runs and 30 RBI in 59 games with Charlotte. He has missed some time due to injury limiting his numbers, but a 34 percent strikeout rate will kill any attempt to have a batting average. Assuming he gets regular playing time the rest of the season, Fields could get maybe 10 home runs, but don’t look for much if any batting average.

Ian Kennedy, remember him? He nearly pitched a no-hitter for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last week. An error with one out to go extended the inning to allow the following hitter double in a run to tie the game. Kennedy finished with just that one hit allowed after striking out seven and walking zero. It was the second error of the night, which meant he really could have been going for a perfect game. Kennedy has a 2.88 ERA over his past five starts.

BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

• Buy – Paul Konerko, 1B—CHW There is no doubt that Konerko is in the midst of his aging regression, but it seems to have accelerated this season beyond what should be expected. For starters, Konerko is continuing to show his usual eye at the plate with a 0.65 BB/K ratio. He also is hitting 20.5 percent line drives. With that, his expected BABIP is to be .309. It is actually a very low .239, 70 points away from his expected rate. While I would expect it to be a little under because of the increase in ground balls hit by a slow-footed Konerko, it should not be that big of a disparity. I am not projecting Konerko to by any means return to the glory days, but if you are in the need of some power at a very cheap cost, I bet Konerko could be had. I’d project around a .270 batting average and upwards of 10 home runs the rest of the way.

• Sell – Francisco Rodriguez, CL—LAA I don’t suggest this to all, but if you are in excess of saves, own Rodriguez, and need help elsewhere, look to move him. K-Rod is in the midst of a historic run. With 43 saves, he is on pace to save 67 destroying Bobby Thigpen’s now 18-year-old record of 57 in 1990. It is even more remarkable when you look at his stats. He is actually having his worst season since taking the closers job over in 2004. Rodriguez is showing a drop in strikeouts due to a decrease in velocity, another increase in walks, now over five per nine innings, and an increase in line drives allowed, which should raise a players BABIP (his has actually dropped substantially). To this point his fielding independent ERA is listed as 3.62. His actual ERA is 2.29. Most of this difference is due to the luck on BABIP and the high walk rate. I’d suggest looking at moving him while he is viewed as the best fantasy closer on the market because of the saves. He’s already given you a season’s worth by the end of July.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL FIRST BASEMAN

1. Justin Morneau, MIN
2. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
3. Miguel Cabrera, DET
4. David Ortiz, BOS
5. Aubrey Huff, BAL
6. Jason Giambi, NYY
7. Carlos Pena, TB
8. Carlos Guillen, DET
9. Chris Davis, TEX
10. Casey Kotchman, LAA

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.