Roto Chronicles: American League – August 18

Some Orioles are going up and down, see who is going what direction…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Nick Markakis, OF—BAL (UP) The budding young star in Baltimore continues to impress. Since the All-Star break, Markakis has hit .322 with three home runs and 26 RBI. And what makes him all the more impressive is that he has more walks than strikeouts since the break, 18 to 13. For the season, Markakis has an OBP of .403, which has certainly helped to lead to his 87 runs scored, which ties him for third in the American League. He has it all, improving plate discipline, power, a steady .300 level batting average, and some speed to boot (he also has 10 steals). Generally drafted in the third round of leagues this season, look for him to be in round two next season.

• Melvin Mora, 3B—BAL (UP) Mora has been on a tear of late. He leads the American League in batting average at .432 and RBI with 43 since the All-Star break. He also has hit nine home runs during this span. This puts him at .286 with 20 home runs and 91 RBI for the season. After three-year decline in most offensive categories, Mora has officially bounced back to show that he has something left in the tank at 36. His power, as evidenced by his 14 percent HR/FB rate, is back after two seasons under nine percent, and he is striking out at a career low level of 13.5 percent of at-bats. These are two of the main contributors to the turnaround. Though, be careful next season. This run likely will help in overvaluing him come draft time.

• Carlos Pena, 1B—TB (UP) It’s been a tale of two seasons for the slugging first baseman from Tampa. Before Pena was sidelined with the fractured index finger back in June, he hit .227 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI. Since his return on June 27, Pena has hit .259 with 14 home runs and 36 RBI in 41 less at-bats. This is more of what was witnessed from Pena in his breakout season of last season. He still strikes out way too much to be able to maintain any great average, but his ability to draw a walk and hit the log ball more than makes up for that if you are interested in a pure power hitter. I wouldn’t expect to get much more than a .260 average from here on out with a chance for maybe another 10-12 home runs.

• Ken Griffey Jr., OF—CHW (DOWN) There is still value in Jr., but it is hard to wait on as he struggles through a season where he is hitting .243 as his power continues to decline. Now with just average power, even in a favorable ballpark in either Cincinnati or Chicago, Griffey Jr. is hitting only 10.7 percent of fly balls over the fence. That still is good for some, but for a player as Jr. with a low batting average and no stolen bases to speak of, you wonder where his value comes from. A thought is that a low .262 BABIP during a season when he increased his line drive rate should net a gain in batting average, but it has yet to work out that way. He also draws a great number of walks, which is a reason why Ozzie Guillen has placed him in the two-hole in the White Sox lineup. This fact and the hope that he starts hitting does shine a ray of hope for Griffey Jr.’s finish to 2008.

• Grady Sizemore, OF—CLE (DOWN) Sizemore is going through his first real extended slump of 2008, hitting just .172 with three runs scored during the month of August. I wouldn’t worry too much about it though. Sizemore has continued to show excellent plate discipline, walking 12 times to 9 strikeouts, and his BABIP has been a very low .204. For the season Sizemore should remain viewed as an up as he has cut back on strikeouts, walked more, hit for more power, and is on pace to set a career high in stolen bases. He needs just three home runs to reach the 30/30 plateau that so few ever get to.

• Frank Thomas, DH—OAK (DOWN) Another future Hall-of-Famer on a downturn in their career, Frank Thomas is hitting just .207 since the All-Star break and has shown decreased power throughout the season. Thomas has just eight home runs on the season, partly due to the home run depressing ballpark in Oakland, injuries, and because of Thomas’ regression as he ages. According to the runs created per 27 outs statistic (RC/27), this is Thomas’ worst season of his career besides his 2001 season when he missed all but 20 games. At this point I would not suggest Thomas unless he starts a hot streak where he may hit a couple of home runs. Other than that, I’d stay clear of him.

Pitchers

• Armando Galarraga, SP—DET (UP) What else is there to say than, wow! Did anyone really think that Galarraga could continue this run as long as he has? Through 21 starts, Galarraga is 11-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. After the All-Star break, Galarraga has maintained consistency with an ERA of 3.13 as compared to his 3.27 before the break. Though, one area that has shown improvement is his command, walking just 1.4 batters per nine innings as compared to 3.6 before the break. He does not show a prior history of this amount of control, so be aware that this success may not continue and in turn the ERA may rise. But if he maintains this run through the end of the year, if not for a third baseman in Tampa, Galarraga would be a certain rookie of the year candidate.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP—BOS (UP) Matsuzaka continues to prove the doubters (including me) wrong this season. During a year when his walks have jumped, strikeouts have decreased, you would suspect that a pitchers ERA would increase. Yet, with that scenario, Matsuzaka’s ERA has been quite different, in a good way. Matsuzaka currently sports a 2.74 ERA with a 14-2 record as compared to his 4.40 ERA and 15-12 record of 2007. Part of it is attributed to the fact that he has been able to cut back on the home runs allowed with a HR/FB rate of under six percent. He also has a rather low BABIP .257 and a generous 82 percent strand rate. You can say that he has been lucky this season and is due for a regression at any point, but I have been waiting all season, this may just be one of those odd years that make us scratch our heads and wonder how he did it.

• Ervin Santana, SP—LAA (UP) After being hurt by an increase in walks and by the long ball a bit through June and July, Santana has turned it back up into August. In three starts, Santana is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA and an excellent 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is showing no signs of slowing down, not even on the road where he had a history of struggling. Santana on the road this season is 9-2 with a 3.45 ERA as compared to his 10-22 record and 7.35 ERA entering 2008. With this problem seemingly fixed, as you would suspect it would have eventually, Santana’s long-term prospects look bright.

• Gavin Floyd, SP—CHW (DOWN) If I told you that a certain pitcher had a 5.12 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over his last 10 starts, and that his 5.12 ERA was higher than his expected fielding independent pitching ERA of 4.76, would you believe that the pitcher was 98 percent owned? No way, but that is Gavin Floyd. I guess that tells you that if you get off to a hot start as Floyd did, fantasy ownership will continue based on those numbers rather than his actual skill level. So, moral of the story, don’t always be fooled by the overall stat line of a player. The only real improvement that Floyd has shown this season is a decrease home runs allowed per nine innings, which still remains at an unacceptable 1.35.

• Vicente Padilla, SP—TEX (DOWN) Padilla, just as Floyd started out of the gate in 2008 on a hot streak. Padilla was 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA through May. Since, Padilla still has a winning 5-4 record, but a very high 6.22 ERA. And he, as Floyd, has way too much ownership. It is at a much lower 16 percent, but it again shows how a non-individual stat such as wins can mislead ownership in public leagues. Now on top of his struggles, Padilla is dealing with pain in his neck that has pushed back yesterday’s scheduled start to at least this Tuesday against the Tigers. Don’t even think about it, just let him go.

• George Sherrill, CL—BAL (DOWN) Even though George Sherrill has saved 31 games for the Orioles this season, his stats show a downturn in his skill set. Or maybe this is what he was all along. Sherrill has two seasons to his credit of a three-to-one or better K/BB ratio in 2005 and 2007, but now three of the 1.50 range. This season, Sherrill has met his career average of 9.66 strikeouts per nine innings, but has walked 5.36 per nine, the second highest of his career. This has been the main reason for his WHIP shooting to a career high 1.49. Putting so many hitters on base for free as a fly ball pitcher can be scary. Sherrill is third in the league in blown saves behind J.J. Putz and Boston setup man Hideki Okajima.

INJURY REPORT

The Red Sox will have to move Kevin Youkilis back across the diamond as Mike Lowell strained an oblique last week landing him on the disabled list. The Red Sox hope that it can heal fast enough for him to be able to return by the end of the month, but the likely scenario will see Lowell returning in early September. Sean Casey will pick up the extra at-bats at first base.

Bartolo Colon is just fine after an unexpected exit during rehab start Friday night. He was scheduled to throw 65 pitches, but left after the first inning because of a stomach illness. It will slow the rehab back by that one start, as he will again try to hit the 65-pitch mark his next time out on Wednesday.

The Yankees loss of starter Dan Giese to the disabled list on top of Ian Kennedy’s continued struggles, and Joba’s injury are in the need of a starter. Good for the Yankees that top pitching prospect Phil Hughes is now ready to be activated. However, Hughes did get roughed up a bit on Sunday allowing five runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings in what was likely to be his last rehab appearance. We’ll see if this performance delays him another start or not, but he did work his way to 91 pitches before exiting.

Well, at least Grant Balfour owners are happy. Troy Percival again hit the disabled list, this time with cartilage damage in his knee. This is the third time this season that the veteran right-hander has been sidelined, and this time it may need surgery. Though, the possible surgery really doesn’t change the expected return date of mid-September, just in time for the final playoff push.

Big news for the Indians this week as both Josh Barfield and Victor Martinez began their rehab assignments for a possible return this week. Also, Travis Hafner is back swinging at live batting practice and is running the bases. Hafner’s goal is to return by the end of August. He will begin his rehab assignment with AAA Buffalo on Tuesday night.

Tigers’ reliever Joel Zumaya is now done for the season. In what is being said as good news, the injury is a tearing of scar tissue in his surgically repaired shoulder. Thus, it is not a new injury. Manager Jim Leyland stated that the Tigers will shut him down and let him come to spring training ready for 2009.

The Tigers also lost Todd Jones to the disabled list again after a disastrous return. But really do we care? He may be done for the season, and who knows if another chance will come calling Jones.

If you are in the search of some cheap late season speed, Joey Gathright is set to return to the Royals this week. He is hitting .190 through five games with AAA Omaha.

Twins second baseman Alexi Casilla will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Beloit this Tuesday night in hopes of returning for the weekend series against the Angels. He is still not comfortable hitting left-handed however.

Maicer Izturis’ season is officially over, the infielder will undergo surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb. He re-injured the thumb diving for a ball on Wednesday night against Seattle. Izturis finishes the season at .269, three home runs, 37 RBI, 44 runs, and 11 stolen bases.

Oakland outfielder Ryan Sweeney was placed onto the disabled list with a sprained thumb. This should only effect AL-only leagues as Sweeney had just four home runs to go with a .287 batting average in 289 at-bats. Barring any setbacks, he is scheduled for a return by the end of August.

Conveniently for the Mariners, Carlos Silva just happened to get shelled again and then was placed onto the disabled list with either arm fatigue or elbow tendonitis depending on what report you read. This move allows them to recall a young arm in Ryan Feierabend to make some starts.

Hank Blalock was supposed to be ready for activation this past weekend, but again as is the standard with him this season, his return was pushed back to at least this Friday against Cleveland. It is really hard to recommend him at this point as any shoulder problems can zap a hitter’s power. Unless you are in a very deep mixed league, I wait for some positive results before looking back at him this season. He also will be finishing his move to first base because of his shoulder, which will then move Chris Davis to third.

Milton Bradley continues to suffer from lingering pains all over his body. Bradley sat out both Saturday and Sunday with a stiff back and is considered day-to-day.

The Rangers should be welcoming back Brandon McCarthy for the first time this season. McCarthy has missed the majority of 2008 with severe inflammation of his forearm. He has thrown 13 consecutive scoreless innings with four hits allowed and 11 strikeouts over his past two starts. He should be looked at in AL_only leagues to start.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS—CLE Remember back to the pre-season projections at second base when Cabrera was generally considered a sleeper who could give double-digit steals and home runs while giving solid batting average and runs scored totals? It sure seems like a long-time ago after his horrid first half of the season. Well, since he was demoted to AAA for that lackluster hitting and then recalled at the All-Star break, Cabrera has hit .288 with three home runs, nine RBI, and a stolen base. He again looks like that developing talent that everybody saw during the Indians’ playoff run of a season ago.

• Hideki Matsui, OF—NYY Better snatch him up while you can. I was shocked to read that he is actually available in half of ESPN leagues. Matsui is currently finishing up a rehab assignment and should be activated this Tuesday. With the demotion of Melky Cabrera and the release of Richie Sexson, Matsui should fit right into the DH spot. Before the knee issues arose back in June, Matsui had hit .323 with seven home runs and 34 RBI. We shouldn’t expect the batting average to be maintained as he comes back from injury, and because of his previously favorable .346 BABIP, but with his low 12 percent strikeout rate, Matsui will continue to give a solid average with average to above average power.

• Andy Sonnanstine, SP—TB Mentioned before, Andy Sonnanstine is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter to have on teams. Right now Sonnanstine is on a positive run with the Rays as he has three straight quality starts with an ERA of 2.32, 16 strikeouts and two walks. At a time when you are hearing Paul Byrd’s name come up in waiver wire talks, I beg to differ and say that Andy Sonnanstine, a similar pitcher in style, is the better pick. Sonnanstine has similar control, strikes out more hitters, gives up less home runs, and generates more gound balls than does Byrd (who’s ownership has multiplied higher than Sonnanstine by only changing teams not improving skill). To this point, the expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) statistic says that Byrd should have an expected ERA of 4.94, and Sonnanstine, 4.25.

• Jensen Lewis, RP—CLE Jensen Lewis is the new star of “As the Bullpen Turns” in Cleveland. While the suggested Rafael Perez of a week ago is still worth an add for his qualitative stats (ERA/WHIP) and a few saves that will likely be mixed in, Jensen Lewis has now become the favorite of Eric Wedge in the ninth inning role. Wedge has a way of finding a guy that he trusts and sticking to them. This has a feel of one of those times. Lewis has a deceptive delivery and since the All-Star break is sporting a 2.25 ERA and .241 batting average against. And over his past eight appearances he has yet to allow an earned run in 9.2 innings of relief. If you are chasing saves and Grant Balfour is already gone, take a chance of Jensen Lewis, this might be the Indians man the rest of the way. He did have a 2.15 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 29.1 innings a year ago.

FUTURES MARKET

As the Red Sox traded for a veteran presence in Paul Byrd to help them down the stretch in the place of the injured Tim Wakefield, a name that came up a few times as a possible replacement, be it a bit early or not, was 21-year-old Michael Bowden. Bowden was recently promoted to AAA Pawtucket after going 9-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 19 starts at AA Portland. He throws a low-to-mid 90’s fastball mixed with a solid curveball and deceptive changeup. His ability to pound the strike zone bodes well for his chances as he increases levels. To date with Pawtucket in six starts, Bowden is 0-3, but has a fine 23-to-5 strikeout to walk ratio and a 3.21 ERA in 33.2 innings.

After struggling through the majority of the summer, the Royals’ top pitching prospect according to Baseball America, Daniel Cortes, looks to have adjusted to AA hitters and is throwing quite well over his past five starts. Over these starts, Cortes is 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 29 strikeouts. His command of the strike zone, as with all pitchers is important, he needs to improve upon his 4.3 walks per nine innings. Even during this current hot streak Cortes has allowed 14 walks over 28 innings, which is still at his seasonal rate.

Projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever by Baseball America in this season’s Prospect Handbook, left-handed pitcher Brad Mills is hoping to prove that wrong. Drafted out of Arizona in the fourth round a season ago, Mills only was able to get into six games in the Short-Season A New York-Penn League for experience. He is known for a great changeup, which has enabled Mills to jump from two levels this season from Low-A to AA. Overall on the season, including his current 0.44 ERA and 2-1 record at AA New Hampshire, Mills is 12-4 with a 1.89 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 133.1 innings. At 23, Mills may have a shot at making the Blue Jays roster at some point next season.

Speaking of Blue Jays prospects, another has jumped two levels this season. Power hitting outfield prospect Travis Snider has recently made the jump to AAA even though he continues to strikeout a third of the time and was hitting just .262 at AA New Hampshire. That is the downside to his ability, what he can do however is hit the ball with authority. He has 22 home runs spread across the three levels of competition, and is currently hitting .375 with a home run and nine RBI since his promotion to AAA Syracuse.

I guess it is time for my near monthly update on super-catching prospect Matt Wieters. Wieters remains in AA at the moment, and continues to pound the ball. After hitting .345 with 15 home runs and an OPS of 1.024 in Single-A Fredrick, Wieters has hit .352 with nine home runs and an OPS of 1.057 for AA Bowie. The increased level of competition has not fazed this soon to be major league catcher. It won’t happen this season, but come spring training we will surely be hearing about how Wieters is poised to begin 2009 as the Orioles starting catcher and maybe even an All-Star as a rookie just as Geovanny Soto was this season for the Cubs..

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 ELIGIBLE AL THIRD BASEMAN

1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY
2. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
3. Miguel Cabrera, DET
4. Aubrey Huff, BAL
5. Evan Longoria, TB—DL
6. Melvin Mora, BAL
7. Mike Lowell, BOS—DL
8. Adrian Beltre, SEA
9. Chone Figgins, LAA
10. Carlos Guillen, DET

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.