Roto Chronicles: National League–August 25
by Wayne Lin
The season is a little over a month away from being over, but some players are playing their hearts out and that deserves a spot in royalty. And some players don’t care.
Several players on my list this week have had roller coaster-type seasons that are often very frustrating to fantasy owners, do doubt. The fact of the matter is we as the fans and owners can’t tell the player to perform to our standards.
The season is a little over a month away from being over, but some players are playing their hearts out and that deserves a spot in royalty. And some players don’t care.
Ruts:
Aaron Harang: Speaking of players who don’t care. Harang isn’t very good. In fact, he’s terrible. A 4-13 record is pretty despicable, but what bothers me is why is still in the league. With a 5.35 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, I’ll be very surprised if anybody owns him at this point. Some critics say he just didn’t get any luck this season. My take is you shouldn’t have to rely on luck to produce on the mound. Like Bronson Arroyo, the Reds grossly overpaid for Harang’s services. Sure he did well his last outing against the Rockies pitching through six innings and not giving up a run, but let’s look at the three starts before that: 0-3, 22 runs allowed, and 11 innings pitched. Enough said.
Hunter Pence: Pence is giving us a performance deemed worth of the roller coaster award. He has more peaks and valleys than the Grand Canyon, but if this season is any indication to how the rest of his season will turn out, he will have a great week. In the week he bat .136 with only two runs. He still has a good average with .260, and 18 homeruns on the season, and he his OBP has also gone down to .301. The Astros are out of the playoff race at this point, unless they can pull off the Rockies’ monumental performance of last season at this point, but that is highly doubtful with the pitching woes. Pence should try to finish out the season strongly and attempt to get his average as close to .300 as possible. This is a sexy pick, but I suggest starting him this week as he’ll go against the Reds and Cardinals, who also having pitching concerns.
Jorge Campillo: He is 0-2 in his last three starts not lasting more than three innings. He has never been in a starting roll and it may very well be starting to wear on him. The Braves eased him into the starting lineup from coming out of the bullpen, but arms don’t adjust that quickly. It takes time, but Campillo has a chance next season to be a number one or two starter for the Braves. You couldn’t ask for more from his amazing performance this season with his first year in the starting role; however, his numbers are rising a little bit and for pitchers, that’s not good. He still has an 8-7 record with a 1.12 WHIP. I would still play him because he will play an ailing Nationals team this week.
Mark Kotsay: The Braves are insistent on keeping him, but I don’t know why. Sure the outfield is depleted, but his average has lowered .20 points in the last week. Sure he may be a veteran, but he certainly isn’t playing like one. It could be one and done for Kotsay in Atlanta. His 11-year career has had some great moments, but it’s also had it’s low ones. Marred by injuries Kotsay’s career could be drawing to a close. Even though .289 is a good average, much more was expected out of him this season…suffice it to say, the same thing has been said about him every season. For a power hitting center fielder six homeruns and 36 RBIs isn’t impressive. Bench him.
Carlos Beltran: He has been hot and cold this season, but currently he sits at a .270 average, but he is only .200 on the week. Beltran can either intimidate pitchers or make them laugh at him, but right now he’s the latter. He isn’t using his hips enough on his swings, and he isn’t squaring up to the plate. Veteran pitchers will break out of slumps easily and Beltran is a master of doing it. Do not be shy about starting him this week. He’s not that big of a disappointment that he can’t help you.
Royalty:
Ryan Braun: Braun is batting slightly below .300 but he’s smashed 32 homeruns and 96 RBIs. He’s scored seven runs in four games which show that he’s getting on base and he’s finally using his speed. Braun is projected to hit .320 on the season and he is on pace to do so. Braun will be facing St. Louis and Pittsburgh, both teams in which he hitting over .300 against. This is the perfect time to start Braun as he should have a great week going against those two clubs.
Andre Ethier: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. He has talent. This week he has a measly .230 average, but he has seven runs and five walks, raising his OBP to .351. Ethier plays in a crowded outfield and I suspect his average has gone down due to Manny crowding the field. For someone who doesn’t have a big frame, he his hitting .275, has 16 homeruns and 65 RBIs. Big things come in small packages. He’s a consistent high .200 hitter which isn’t bad for the National League. One great statistic that is overlooked by people is his errors count. He only has two. One error could be debated, but two errors are still lights out good no matter what position you play. Is he worth starting? Yes. He won’t stay in slumps long so it’s only a matter of time.
Joel Pineiro: Joel is doing a better job of late, but he is still sporadic. You never know what you’re going to get each start but he has won his last three starts raising his season record to 6-5. Even though the 6-5 record isn’t anything to write home about you have to admire his persistence and his ability to block out the critics. Pineiro isn’t worth a start from this point of the season on because of his nagging injuries and his sporadic nature; however, he’ll bounce back and prove his critics wrong. 6-5 isn’t good, it’s average, especially for a starter, but he’ll find a way to bounce back; just not this season. He’s relatively young for a pitcher so he has a few years until he reaches his peak. Watch for him next season.
Ricky Nolasco: Talk about underrated. Nolasco by far gets the award for most-not-talked-about pitcher. This young pitcher is 13-7, which ranks seventh in the league in wins; a 1.13 WHIP, fifth in the league; and 171 innings pitched, ninth in the league. Not bad for a pitcher that makes $300,000. The highest his ERA has ever gone this season is 6.46 and that was in April. He has fought, scratched, and worked his way down to a very respectable, scary 3.62 ERA and winning his last two starts giving up only two runs. He has the makings of an excellent starting pitcher and could vie for the ace of the staff next season. This week he will face a tough Mets team, but he owns a 2-2 record against them this season. He’s worth starting only because he is riding a hot streak at the moment.
Shane Victorino: He is tearing the ball apart and raising his average to .291 in the process. That may not be dazzling, but it’s good for a player that hasn’t been given much attention on the season. He’s also scored seven runs in the week raising his season total to 84. He has a good chance to come around to score if he gets on base, but an underrated stat for Victorino is that he has 28 stolen bases, ranking him seventh in the league. Play him while you can. He doesn’t have many 0- for days, and that only increases your chances of raising your average. He will face a shaky Dodgers pitching staff and a more difficult Mets and Cubs staff this week, but he’s still worth a start.
DL Watch:
John Maine: Maine could be out for the rest of the season. If that’s the case, the Mets are in trouble and worse yet, fantasy owners. Maine was starting to get his ERA down and strike out more batters. This one will hurt the Mets the most this season.
Carlos Lee: This one had to hurt for owners too, but he should be back before the end of the week barring he doesn’t skimp on his rehab.
Takashi Saito: Saito should be back for the weekend, and pitch off the mound, however, he could be in the have season ending surgery if he gets out of control. It’s not wise to play him when he comes back because he likely won’t have the speed on his fastball.
25 August 2008 21:43
Wow, I’m no Reds fan but you went way too far on the Aaron Harang thing. He has pitched 200 + innings since joining the Reds in 2004. His ERA has also been under 4 in a ballpark the gives up a bunch of runs. The Reds have had some bad contracts, but how can you call a guy that has won 16 games in his last two seasons with the Reds a bad investment? Not to mention he was 4th in Cy Young voting in 07. His records isn’t as bad as it indicates. If you would bother to do research, you would know that through his first 12 starts he was 2-8 with a 3.86 ERA before his shoulder troubles started. The Reds just didn’t do much scoring when he was on the mound. He may have bad “fantasy” numbers, but there shouldn’t be any question as to why he is still in the league.
26 August 2008 06:43
I’d have to agree with Andrew. I’m a big fan of taking pitchers later in the draft and I’ve relied on Harang for the the last 3 seasons. He’s been under the radar until the beginning of this season when people noticed his wins and K’s. Its been a disappointing year for Harang owners but a guy with 44 wins and 597 K’s in his previous 3 seasons is hardly “terrible”. Fantasy players should look at this as more of an opportunity to buy low in next seasons draft than anything else.
26 August 2008 22:47
Seriously? His ERA is 5.35 and he’s lost 3 times as many games as he’s won. What adjective would you use? Ghastly? Vomit-inducing? Bottom line: if you counted on Harang to anchor your staff this year, chances are you either dropped him or are in the bottom half of your league heading down the stretch. He deserves to be in the league, but I can guarantee I won’t draft him again.
27 August 2008 09:19
Hi, guys. Thanks for posting the comments. It only makes me a better writer. I’m with some of you, I’ve relied on Harang over the past few years, but this year, really burned me in one of my leagues. I hate to say it, but Harang is probably on the downhill slide in his career. I might have been harsh using “terrible” but I was looking at his numbers today. 4-13 is rough, and he certainly isn’t striking out as many players as he used to. I do agree with you, Andrew, in that the Reds aren’t giving him support, but he’s still 4-13. I hesitate to use this example, but players benefit by being being demoted or put in the bullpen. Could work in Harang’s case. It worked for Zito, sort of, and Ponson, prior to the season. Again, guys, thanks for the comments.
27 August 2008 12:06
Depending on what you use to analyze Harang’s season, his numbers can be a bit deceiving. First of all, Harang’s strikeouts are down, as Wayne mentioned, but not by much. He’s striking out 7.9 batters per 9 IP this year vs. 8.5 per 9 last season and 8.3 per 9 in 2006. That’s not a huge drop off. You can estimate how many wins a pitcher should have based on his quality starts (QS*.74). Harang has 12, which puts his expected wins at 9, making him 9-8 on the season. You can also estimate his record based on Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem. The Reds are scoring 3.74 runs per game in Harang’s starts and allowing approximately 5.85 runs per game (Harang’s ERA + .50 to account for unearned runs). Calculating the ratio of the two gives an expected winning percentage of .290, which comes out to a record of 5-12. That’s only one win and loss off his actual record. Harang appears to be pitching with a bit of bad luck, as his BHIP is 23 points higher than his career average and 40 points higher than it was last year. On the other hand, his ERA (5.35) is lower than it should be based on XERA (5.60).
27 August 2008 13:46
I stuck with Harang for about half of the season and then spot started him and eventually dropped him. I’m contending in every head to head league I’m in. If you look at a majority of people pitching staff’s it’s very different than the one they drafted. Starters go on hot streaks and smart GM’s ride those streaks and start pitchers based on match ups. Drafting pitchers high is foolish due to the huge amount of risk involved and the fact that they don’t benefit your team as much as a first 5-6 round hitter would. Using the pitch or ditch strategy has served me well.