Roto Chronicles: American League – September 1

A few call-ups to watch this September in the AL…

THREE UP/THREE DOWN

Hitters

• Johnny Damon, OF—NYY (UP) Damon has bounced back after a sub-par 2007 in terms of batting average. Damon hit just .270 and it looked as if he was in the midst of a continuing decline phase. Turn the page to 2008 and a .350 BABIP has Damon’s batting average back above .300 along with 11 home runs, 57 RBI, and his usual 25 stolen bases and counting. He is certainly a catalyst for any offense and would be scoring more runs if not for the rest of the Yankees lineup struggling to hit him in. Damon does still have 79 runs scored and an outside shot at 100 for the season. While an increased strikeout rate (to a career high 15.4 percent) and the high BABIP suggest his batting average would be lower, it looks as if Damon will continue to be a solid source of production for at least a few more seasons.

• Curtis Granderson, OF—DET (UP) If you look at the raw stats for Granderson as compared to 2007 you would say that his value would have decreased, yet this version of Granderson projects much better for a more sustained run of success. He has improved his LH batting split to a solid .275, decreased his strikeout rate to 18 percent (it was nearly 30 percent just two years ago), maintained the power stroke with an ISO of .209, and has increased his walk rate to 11 percent. Just as Damon is the Yankees catalyst, Granderson is to the Tigers, scoring 91 runs in 115 games. He looks primed to be a top-notch fantasy player for the foreseeable future.

• Vernon Wells, OF—TOR (UP) Wells has had a rough year with injuries missing two months of the season to wrist and hamstring issues. Though when on the field he has rebounded from the disastrous 2007 that saw him hit just .245 with 16 home runs. As a career .282 hitter, that couldn’t continue. Wells sports a good 12 percent strikeout rate and 14.6 percent home runs per fly ball rate in order to maintain his .299 batting average. With such a contact rate, Wells projects to have the ability to hit in the .280-.290 range on a consistent basis. The main problem we saw last season was an extreme dip in BABIP to .265. Barring any of those unforeseen surprises, Wells should remain a hitter that should produce a solid batting average with 25 home runs, 90 RBI, and a handful of steals. And the potential remains for more as we have witnessed in 2003 and 2006.

• Hank Blalock, 3B—TEX (DOWN) The injuries may be taking a toll on Hank Blalock’s production for at least the 2008 season. Since returning from the various injuries that have sidelined him, Blalock has hit .214 with no home runs or RBI in 10 games. The first time he returned this season in July, Blalock hit .206 with a homer and 8 RBI in nine games before going back on the disabled list for the second time. For the season he is hitting .258 with only four home runs and 15 RBI. On a positive note, Blalock has cut back on strikeouts to 13.3 percent and has a slightly low .278 BABIP, but at this point of the season and with so many injuries, do we care? This is another lost season for Blalock and he will again be a sleeper for next season that some of us might take a flyer on.

• Bobby Crosby, SS—OAK (DOWN) There is still some great love out there for this one-time Rookie-of-the-Year. The problem is that he won the award four years ago and he hasn’t played a full season since. He looks to on pace to play this full season, yet his production remains at the injury riddled season’s rate and not his healthy rookie season (he even hit .239 that season). He has a below average 15.8 percent line drive rate, only 4.8 percent HR/FB, and the usual below average .286 BABIP. Why this guy remains over 15 percent owned is beyond me. Give it up and move on.

• Dioner Navarro, C—TB (DOWN) After making the All-Star team based on a very strong first half to the season, Navarro has hit just .240 with a .350 slugging percentage since the break. To an extent this season is an exact mirror image of last season when Navarro had a bad start to the season, but then looked like an All-Star after the break. He is likely at neither extreme, and is only a catcher that should be utilized in two catcher leagues. Navarro’s power has remained at a low level, just six percent of fly balls, and he is no help in either the runs category or stolen bases. That leaves just batting average and RBI, and he only has 44 RBI. He will be able to maintain a respectable batting average, but if and when Navarro develops power is when he should be again looked at in mixed league, one-catcher environments.

Pitchers

• Mike Mussina, SP—NYY (UP) It’s been two months since I last brought up Mike Mussina, and he continues to rebound from his poor 2007 campaign. Mussina now is second in the AL with 16 wins to go along with a solid 3.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The excellent control that is at career high levels has been even better since the All-Star break. Mussina has just seven walks over these 59 innings, or 1.07 BB/9. He also is inducing a career high 48.3 percent ground balls. This has aided in him decreasing his batting average against from .305 last season to .274 this season. He may still give up more hits than innings, but should he continue to maintain his command and limit home runs Mussina will continue to be a solid fantasy option.

• Fernando Rodney, CL—DET (UP) Now the official full-time closer for the Tigers, Rodney is starting to shine. He has converted his last six save opportunities in a row and has been striking batters out at an incredible rate. During the month of August, as he has taken over the closers role, Rodney is striking out 13.8 batters per nine innings and is limiting hitters to a .182 batting average against. The downside is that he is still susceptible to the walk and a few home runs, but as a ground ball pitcher he should be able to limit the damage. His command has improved as he has worked his way back into form after missing half of the season on the DL. He will never be a Mariano Rivera, but for the time being he is the best option the Tigers have and should do a decent job.

• Kevin Slowey, SP—MIN (UP) The potential was there to start 2008 for Slowey as he was being compared to former Twins pitcher Brad Radke. Slowey, with excellent control, had to find a way to limit home runs allowed to succeed. He had allowed 16 in 66.2 innings during his rookie year of 2007. Mission accomplished. He has 18 home runs allowed in 133.2 innings, cutting his HR/9 from 2.16 to 1.21. Now that he has that near league norms, his ability to limit base runners takes over. Slowey has a 6-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio mixed with a .251 batting average against. All of this adds up to an 11-8 record and 3.70 ERA and since the All-Star break, Slowey is 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The best part of this streak has been the fact that he has 45 strikeouts to just five walks during this stretch.

• Sidney Ponson, SP—NYY (DOWN) Ponson somehow managed a 4-1 record and 3.88 ERA before being released by the Rangers for being “disrespectful to the team”. Since signing with the Yankees, the old Ponson has returned with a 3-4 record and 5.64 ERA. I would be curious to see how much longer the Yankees go with him as they fade from playoff contention and with Phil Hughes ready to return to the rotation. There shouldn’t be much room for a guy who only strikes out 3.7 batters per nine and walks just as many. It seems some keep waiting for his “talent” to develop, but how much longer you wait? He is nothing more than a stopgap major league pitcher, so that should tell that two percent who own him that he is no fantasy pitcher.

• Joe Saunders, SP—LAA (DOWN) I was going to write about Joe Saunders last week until learning of Shaun Marcum’s demotion. The regression of Saunders that some of us have been waiting for has arrived. Statistically overachieving for most of the season, Saunders has an ERA of 5.32 since the All-Star break and an ERA of 6.93 during August. He now has a season worst three starts in a row without a quality start after his latest poor outing against the Athletics. His unsustainable 14.7 percent line drive rate allowed and BABIP of .267 have been increasing as he gives up more hits than innings (54 hits to 44 innings since the break) as he has over his career. He is also striking out less batters, 4.33 K/9, than his career standard of 5.20 K/9. I wouldn’t expect a complete crash, but a reasonable 4.25 ERA the rest of the way should net two to three more wins.

• Justin Verlander, SP—DET (DOWN) The 2008 season for the Tigers ace has been a roller coaster ride. He started on a free fall to an uncharacteristic 1-6 record and 6.43 ERA through his first seven starts of the season. He then went on a hot streak that saw him go 7-3 with a 2.57 ERA over his next 13 starts before once again struggling over his past seven starts with a 2-5 record and 6.47 ERA. The difference is not in his K/BB ratio, but rather a big difference in hits and home runs allowed. During the 87.2 innings of his hot streak Verlander allowed 64 hits and four home runs. During his 89.1 innings of slumps, Verlander has allowed 97 hits and 12 home runs. The K/BB ratio has stayed rather steady at around 2.1 K/BB. Also, Verlander has a low 66 percent strand rate that does hint to some misfortune. His fielding independent ERA is 4.06, which is just under his career 4.14 FIP. Readjust expectations accordingly, but keep him high on your list for 2009 as a bump in his control back to 2007 rates should net a decent gain in potential ERA next season

INJURY REPORT

Outfielder Adam Jones will be activated today from a foot injury that sidelined him during August. Jones completed an extensive workout Saturday with no problems and has been taking some batting practice. He will return to center field in the place of Jay Payton.

The flaming-hot Melvin Mora will likely be out a week after suffering a strained hamstring while running out a ground ball on Friday night. He will not be placed on the disabled list as it doesn’t appear serious, but keep an eye on it.

George Sherrill was originally scheduled to be activated today, but some shoulder stiffness after a throwing session has moved his return to the weekend. Jim Johnson figures to lose time in the closers role as Sherrill returns.

The fact that Josh Beckett was placed on the disabled list was not bad news, it was just procedure. Beckett had already missed significant time and this is retroactive to August 19. He is slated to return Friday night, but that again is no guarantee. Stay tuned.

Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell is nearing a return from a strained oblique. Lowell has been taking swings off of a tee and has a meeting scheduled with team doctors to determine if he is ready.

Joba Chamberlain threw a simulated game in the bullpen Saturday with no setbacks and said he is ready to go. He will finish the season out of the bullpen.

Don’t expect Evan Longoria back Tuesday as first suspected. He is still dealing with some weakness in the wrist that has kept him from swinging a bat. It may be the weekend, or it may be another week, the Rays just want to make sure he is healthy before bringing him back for the playoff push.

Travis Hafner suffered a slight setback last week when he felt some extra soreness in his injured shoulder. He missed a few starts before returning over the weekend. Hafner is 6-for-19 with three doubles and 4 RBI during his rehab. He, along with Josh Barfield, will finish their assignments today with AAA Buffalo before returning to the Indians roster as rosters expand this week.

The Royals rookie shortstop Mike Aviles will likely miss a couple of games after being hit on the hand by a pitch during Sunday’s game against Detroit. X-Rays were negative and he is just listed as day-to-day with a contusion.

The Angels’ infield injury merry-go-round has returned. Maicer Izturis, whom was already placed on the disabled list two weeks ago, has company. Infield mates, Howie Kendrick and Erik Aybar, are again ailing. Kendrick had a relapse of a previous hamstring issue and will miss at least two weeks on the disabled list. Aybar, on-the-other-hand, has yet to be placed on the DL even though he has a sore hamstring. Aybar is said to miss the upcoming week as rosters expand, which will enable the Angels to give more time to the likes of Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez.

The Athletics will welcome back two starting pitchers this week as Justin Duchscherer and Sean Gallagher will be activated by the weekend. Duchscherer is eligible to be activated on Thursday, and Gallagher on Friday. Rumor has it that the A’s are going to go with a six-man rotation to allow sufficient rest between starts.

A strained right quad has again placed Frank Thomas on the disabled list. He missed 55 games earlier in the season with the same problem and might miss the remainder of the season. Barring a return, Thomas will finish the year hitting .240 with eight home runs.

The league-leader in RBI Josh Hamilton is scheduled to finish the root-canal procedure today that has caused him to miss a small amount of time. Best guess is that he may miss another start before returning to the lineup.

What was initially only told as a neck problem, Vicente Padilla is now on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring as well. He should be able to return by mid-September to make another couple starts, but that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners. Regardless of his wins total, Padilla is not that good.

WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)

• Eric Patterson, 2B/OF—OAK If you have a need for speed, take a chance on Eric Patterson. He has a history of some very high BABIP in the minor leagues that have led to a career batting average of over .300 in the minors. Currently his BABIP with the Athletics is just .268 with a very good 21percent line drive rate. The 27 percent strikeout rate is a bit disappointing, but that should level off towards his usual 20 percent range. I would project Patterson hitting around .260 from here on out with additional steals. He already has nine stolen bases while having been to the plate just 113 times.

• Ben Francisco, OF—CLE This rookie has been flying under the radar all season. Just nine percent owned, Francisco has hit .280 with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in 378 at-bats. If you extend his stats over a 162 game schedule you have a hitter capable of hitting 20-plus home runs with around 75-80 RBI. And don’t think that his batting average is not for real either. Francisco won the International League batting title last season with a .318 average and has a career .291 average in the minor leagues. He may never win a major league batting title or wow you in any certain category, but if you are in the need of a fourth or fifth outfielder on a mixed league team you could do worse. A solid comparison right now would be Garret Anderson.

• Dana Eveland, SP—OAK Struggling mightily just a month ago, Eveland was sent to the minor leagues for three successful starts where his problematic command disappeared. Thus, when the opportunity arose for him to be recalled, Oakland made the move and Eveland is back. Since the recall Eveland has made two quality starts and has given up just 14 base runners in 14 innings while allowing just three runs. He also has a nine-to-four K/BB ratio. Should he continue to keep his command in check, his groundball tendencies should carry him. Eveland makes a favorable start against Kansas City on Wednesday night.

• David Purcey, SP—TOR Mentioned a month back as an option on the waiver wires, Purcey has supplied some valuable performances. Three out of his past four starts have been quality starts, and his most recent start against the Rays did net him a loss, but in eight innings he allowed only five hits and one run while striking out 11 batters. Since Purcey’s recall from Syracuse on July 26, he is 2-4, but he has a 4.37 ERA and 33 strikeouts to 10 walks. This command ratio is more consistent with historical minor league norms. The one issue that could burn Purcey is his tendency to fly balls. He has given up eight home runs in 42 innings, but has just two over his past 24 innings. If he can limit that, Purcey will continue his recent success and be a solid sleeper pick for 2009. He has two starts this week against Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

FUTURES MARKET

This will be the last of the Futures Market section as the minor league regular season comes to an end. This week will highlight a set of players who may an impact during the final month of play who have jus recently been recalled or soon will be.

Michael Bowden, SP—BOS The Red Sox top pitching prospect not named Clay Buchholz made his major league debut on Saturday against a good White Sox team. He threw 89 pitches in a five-inning start allowing two runs on seven hits, striking out three to just one walk. He bested veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle for his first major league victory. Bowden was 9-7 with a 2.62 ERA with a 130-to-29 K/BB ratio combined in the minor leagues this season. He figures to get a solid look for the Red Sox during the season’s final month and there have been thoughts that he could make the postseason roster in the bullpen.

Nelson Cruz, OF—TEX It took all season, but the Rangers are willing to take a third look at the power hitting outfielder. As we all have heard, Cruz had a ridiculous .342 batting average with 37 home runs, 99 RBI, and 24 stolen bases. Though this potential has yet to show itself when facing major league pitching. Cruz has a career .231 average with 16 home runs in 467 at-bats. If you need some power for the stretch run and he starts to how any hint of success, grab him up and hope that he has figured it out.

Phil Hughes, SP—NYY With Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson continuing to get rocked for the Yankees, we should see Phil Hughes making a few starts during September. After suffering through two rough starts when the decision was made to go to Carl Pavano, Hughes had a strong outing against Buffalo giving up two runs in 6.1 innings while striking out seven to one walk. The walk total is key. He has just five in 23 innings during his rehab with Scranton. Hughes had 13 in 22 innings with New York back in April.

Aaron Laffey, SP—CLE Aaron Laffey had an incredible run after his first promotion of the year in May when he lead the league a 0.79 ERA over his first five starts. He eventually flamed out and returned to Buffalo to refine his mechanics and regain confidence. Now that rosters are set to expand Laffey will be back, and manager Eric Wedge has stated that he plans on using Laffey in the rotation. Ideally he would replace Jeremy Sowers, but the Indians still want to see him. So Wedge has hinted to a six-man rotation for September.

Travis Snider, OF—TOR The Jays top prospect has made it to the show. Manager Cito Gaston said that, “Snider will rotate between left and right field and will receive some playing time as the club’s designated hitter.” So it looks like he should be getting some regular playing time. I am not ready to anoint this kid yet, but he could produce some solid numbers this month. He was hitting .344 with two home runs and 17 RBI in 64 at-bats for AAA Syracuse before the promotion. He has high strikeout totals so beware that his batting average is likely to suffer, but it may be worth a gamble.

Brandon Wood, SS/3B—LAA Wood was recalled just before September, but only because of injuries. With the likes of Izturis, Kendrick and now Aybar out of the lineup, Wood should see some solid playing time at both shortstop and third base during September. The question will be if he can finally transfer his potential to the big leagues. He has a career .162 batting average with only two home runs in 111 at-bats. That should not last this time, as he was on a hot streak during the second half of the season leading up to this promotion. Wood was 3-for-4 in Sunday afternoon’s game.

RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 20 ELIGIBLE AL STARTING PITCHERS

1. Roy Halladay, TOR
2. Cliff Lee, CLE
3. John Lackey, LAA
4. Ervin Santana, LAA
5. Josh Beckett, BOS—DL
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
7. Scott Kazmir, TB
8. Felix Hernandez, SEA
9. Justin Duchscherer, OAK—DL
10. Francisco Liriano, MIN
11. James Shields, TB
12. Mike Mussina, NYY
13. A.J. Burnett, TOR
14. John Danks, CHW
15. Jon Lester, BOS
16. Javier Vazquez, CHW
17. Justin Verlander, DET
18. Matt Garza, TB
19. Kevin Slowey, MIN
20. Joe Saunders, LAA

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If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact me at m_taylor13@yahoo.com.