2009 Hall of Fame Vote: Us vs. Them

More than a week ago, I asked members of my Seamheads group on Facebook, subscribers to SABR’s mailing list (SABR-L), and Seamheads.com writers and readers to cast a Hall of Fame ballot, and 253 of you responded.  Here are the final results of the 2009 Seamheads.com Hall of Fame voting, and a comparison to the ballots cast by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA):

Seamheads Results

253 ballots cast, 190 votes needed for election

Players must receive 75.0% of the vote or higher to be elected

Name	Votes	PCT
Rickey Henderson	251	99.2%
Bert Blyleven	173	68.4%
Tim Raines	147	58.1%
Andre Dawson	106	41.9%
Mark McGwire	105	41.5%
Jim Rice	99	39.1%
Alan Trammell	74	29.2%
Lee Smith	56	22.1%
Jack Morris	51	20.2%
Tommy John	46	18.2%
Dale Murphy	34	13.4%
Don Mattingly	22	8.7%
Dave Parker	18	7.1%
Harold Baines	11	4.3%
David Cone	10	4.0%
Mark Grace	5	2.0%
Ron Gant	2	0.8%
Matt Williams	2	0.8%
Mo Vaughn	1	0.4%

What We Said

Matt Mitchell: “I’m torn on Tommy John (no pun intended). The surgery is named after him, but did he really do anything other than say ‘Yes’ to undergoing a new procedure to warrant induction? I’m not so sure. If possible, I’d put Curt Flood ahead of him in the ‘pioneering player’ department.”

Jonathan C. Mitchell: “My ballot in order is: Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven, and Alan Trammell…Baines has good numbers but no position and no real dominant seasons. Dawson’s OBP really takes him off my ballot but I am still torn. Jim Rice really isn’t very close.”

Bill Chuck: “I think it is time, to give Jim Rice his due.

“Jim Rice was an eight-time All-Star, hit 20 or more home runs 11 times, drove in 100 or more runs eight times and hit .300 or better seven times. He had 200 hits or more four times and six times finished in the top five in MVP voting, winning it in 1978.

“If you compare apples to apples, here are the players who were primarily left fielders, like Rice, currently in the Hall: Al Simmons, Billy Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Chick Hafey, Ed Delahanty, Fred Clarke, Goose Goslin, Heinie Manush, Jesse Burkett, Joe Medwick, Lou Brock, Monte Irvin, Ralph Kiner, Ted Williams, Willie Stargell, and Zack Wheat.

“While there are reasons why Rice was not a first-ballot selection like Henderson will be, when you look at Rice’s numbers if he were included in Hall, you can see that Rice would be in the middle of the pack among baseball’s best.”

Al Beaton: “I’m a Detroiter, so I’ll admit I’m biased. But it’s a travesty Alan Trammell is considered an afterthought for the HOF. And don’t get me going on Lou Whittaker…”

Lyford Beverage: “Rice is on the wrong side of the borderline. He won’t be the worst inductee if, as expected, he’s voted in this year, but he doesn’t belong. His career was too short, and too much of his peak value is a product of the ballpark.”

Subrata Sircar: “Each of these guys (Henderson, Byleven, McGwire, Raines, Trammell) is better than the average HoF player at their positions. (Tim Raines and Alan Trammell in particular are better than most HoF players, but had the misfortune of being contemporary with Henderson and Cal Ripken respectively, who have cases for being the best ever at their positions.)

“These two guys (Tommy John, Lee Smith) are not as good as the previous five, but John deserves some extra credit for being the first to successfully return from the procedure that bears his name – and being good for a really long time. Lee Smith was actually very good for a very long time – surprisingly good when I looked at the record. I think that he would be a worthy addition to the Hall.”

David Lichtman (Voted for Henderson, Blyleven, Raines): “I think the others receiving more than a few votes are benefiting from the nostalgia of those of us born between 1965 and 1975.”

Ross Grooters: “In my opinion, Baines has got to be one of the more underrated players of the 1980s… Parker’s lack of support is pretty amazing too. I’m not saying these two are Hall of Famers, just that they seem to lack popular appeal.”

Steve Marantz: “The relative lack of support for Rice is conspicuous. I live in the Boston area and the media has been beating the drum for Rice. This vote provides a different perspective.”

Stephen Keane: “How is Jim Rice talked about for Hall of Fame when Dwight Evans had better numbers and is forgotten?”

Jimmy Seidita: “Clemens and Bonds would get in based on what they did before they (likely) ‘roided up. McGwire before steroids was Dave Kingman.

“I’m giving Morris extra credit for that one game that ended the 1991 season. Maybe not very scientific, but that was a heck of a game.

“And I’m thinking of Parker as close to Rice, but with a batting title, and with one of the best outfield arms ever.”

BBWAA Results

539 ballots cast, 404 votes needed for election

Players must receive 75.0% of the vote or higher to be elected

Name	Votes	PCT
Rickey Henderson	511	94.8%
Jim Rice	412	76.4%
Andre Dawson	361	67.0%
Bert Blyleven	338	62.7%
Lee Smith	240	44.5%
Jack Morris	237	44.0%
Tommy John	171	31.7%
Tim Raines	122	22.6%
Mark McGwire	118	21.9%
Alan Trammell	94	17.4%
Dave Parker	81	15.0%
Don Mattingly	64	11.9%
Dale Murphy	62	11.5%
Harold Baines	32	5.9%
Mark Grace	22	4.1%
David Cone	21	3.9%
Matt Williams	7	1.3%
Mo Vaughn	6	1.1%
Jay Bell	2	0.4%
Jesse Orosco	1	0.2%

What They Said

Bill Conlin: “Rickey is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time, joining a 2009 class that has been whittled to a mere 14 holdovers and nine fellow first-timers. He stands out like Sinatra at an ‘American Idol’ audition.”

Bob Verdi: “Yes, Henderson had a certain air about him, as though his fondest wish was to die in his own arms. But he was a special talent, and he deserves induction into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Also, I voted for Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith and Jack Morris, all overdue.”

Joe Posnanski: “Tommy John: Yes. He didn’t have a great peak, but 288 wins, a surgery named for him, an excellent postseason record, 46 shutouts and an enviable record as a great control pitcher is a Hall of Fame case.”

Murray Chass: “Although I don’t think writers should vote for the Hall of Fame, I have lost that fight. As long as writers continue to vote and I believe Jack Morris belongs in the Hall, I decided I would vote because Morris needs all the votes he can get.

“I also voted for Henderson and Rice, the first an obvious selection, Rice not so obvious, a borderliner actually.”

Tracy Ringolsby: “Rice was a very good player, but very good isn’t Hall of Fame worthy. The Hall of Fame is for the elite of the elite of the elite…Oh, he was a definite threat at the plate, but the idea he was among the most intimidating hitters of his era is misguided.”

Tim Cowlishaw: “I think Rice, Dawson and Blyleven all are borderline Hall of Famers. There are reasons not to vote for any of them, although I think the reasons against Blyleven are sketchy.

“Yes, Blyleven never won a Cy Young Award and pitched in only two All-Star Games. But pitching for much of his career for lousy teams, the great curveball pitcher won 287 games and threw 60 shutouts. Those are Hall of Fame numbers for any pitcher in any era.”

Phil Pepe: “My Hall of Fame ballot is in the mail with only three names on it, Rickey Henderson, in his first year on the Baseball Writers ballot; Jim Rice, in his final year of eligibility by the writers; and Bert Blyleven, in his 12th year on the ballot.

“With some regret, and after giving them very serious consideration, I chose not to vote for Andre Dawson or Jack Morris.”

Ken Rosenthal: “Failing to vote for Dawson for the Hall of Fame because of his low career on-base percentage is like criticizing an old comedian for being politically incorrect.

“Dawson should be judged by the standards of his era, not by the standards of today. Yes, I wish his OBP had been higher, but I vote for him for the Hall with enthusiasm.”

Bruce Jenkins: “Jack Morris defined the type of toughness lacking in so many starting pitchers today. He would have laughed at pitch counts, had they existed. Big winner who finished games (133 times) and was especially good in the postseason. Yes. And I’d love to see a “no” voter try to look Morris in the eye.”

Hal McCoy: “First of all, I’ll tell you for whom I did NOT vote — Mark McGwire. Not now, not ever. As many of you know, my position is that when he sat in front of the congressional hearing on steroids and said, ‘I’m not here to talk about the past,’ I immediately decided, ‘Well, Mark, if you won’t talk about the past, I won’t consider your past accomplishments’.”

Seamheads/BBWAA Comparison

Name	Seamheads%	BBWAA%	DIFF
Rickey Henderson	99.2%	94.8	4.4
Bert Blyleven	68.4%	62.7	5.7
Tim Raines	58.1%	22.6	35.5
Andre Dawson	41.9%	67.0	25.1
Mark McGwire	41.5%	21.9	19.6
Jim Rice	39.1%	76.4	37.3
Alan Trammell	29.2%	17.4	11.8
Lee Smith	22.1%	44.5	22.4
Jack Morris	20.2%	44.0	23.8
Tommy John	18.2%	31.7	13.5
Dale Murphy	13.4%	11.5	1.9
Don Mattingly	8.7%	11.9	3.2
Dave Parker	7.1%	15.0	7.9
Harold Baines	4.3%	5.9	1.6
David Cone	4.0%	3.9	0.1
Mark Grace	2.0%	4.1	2.1
Ron Gant	0.8%	0.0	0.8
Matt Williams	0.8%	1.3	0.5
Mo Vaughn	0.4%	1.1	0.7

In the case of Henderson and Blyleven at or near the top, and most of the players at the bottom of the list, voting was fairly consistent.  While only two of our voters left Henderson off their ballots, 28 members of the BBWAA left him off theirs, for a difference of 4.4%.  But while we voted in only Henderson, the BBWAA also elected Red Sox slugger Jim Rice with 76.4% of the vote, 37.3% greater support then he received from the Seamheads.  And where we had Tim Raines third in the balloting (58.1%) and longtime teammate Andre Dawson fourth at 41.9%, the BBWAA had Dawson third at 67% and Raines all the way down in eighth place with a meager 22.6%.

Part of me isn’t surprised by Rice’s induction considering he had been getting increased support over the last couple years and because this was his last year on the ballot.  Being a Rice fan growing up, I’m happy for him, but I wouldn’t have lost sleep if he hadn’t been elected, and I think that’s how a lot of fans feel.  He’s certainly not the worst Hall of Famer of all time and he’s definitely not the best.  I don’t think his induction will cheapen the HOF, but it won’t enhance it either.  I’m disappointed that Blyleven came up short again, and I’m shocked that Raines hasn’t gotten more support.  Both deserve better.

I also think it’s telling that 41.5% of our ballots included McGwire, while only 21.9% of the BBWAA’s included him, which tells me the fans may be more willing to forgive him his sins than the writers.  It looks like it’ll be a while before Big Mac is enshrined (if ever), and that’s okay with me.

I want to thank everyone for participating.  We’re definitely going to do this again next year.