NL East Preview–Grudge Match

Mets manager Jerry Manuel wants to turn the NL East into a two-team grudge match between the Mets and Phillies. Manuel should get his way with the pennant race depending on whose ace stays the healthiest–Hamels or Santana. This is the 40th anniversary of the “Amazin’ Mets” and New York is the one with the new stadium this season, so I give them the nod. The fight should be a good one with the Braves, Marlins and Nats having their say, but by September they will be watching from a distance.

New York Mets: Predicted Finish: First Place (96-66)

A Infield: Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, David Wright. Brian Schneider
B Outfield: Carlos Betran, Danny Murphy, Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis

B Starters: Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Livan Hernandez
A+ Bullpen: Frankie Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Pedro Feliciano

Forty years ago Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Tommy Agee and Cleon Jones led the “Miracle Mets” to one of the most improbable World Series wins in baseball history. The 2009 Mets don’t have that kind of pitching, but have a far more potent lineup. Jerry Manuel is in his second season at the helm and despite letting his charges blow another commanding lead in 2008, he believes his team is ready to make a run. One change he envisions for 2009 is moving Jose Reyes to the third sport in the lineup to give more presence for his young star, to make him more of a team leader.

The most crucial leadership will need to come from Frankie Rodriguez and J.J. Putz who have moved into the NY media glare for the first time. Talking about his shortstop may be a shell game Manuel is playing to keep the press focused on his proven players, rather than the ones most important to September success for the Mets. The other variable is Carlos Delgado who at 37 is the old veteran and who needs to stay healthy to back up Wright and Beltran in the lineup.

Johan Santana was limited during the spring because of elbow “tightness,” but looked dominating in his last few tuneups. Without Santana, the Mets are a very good second place team. If Santana gets thirty starts, then the difference between the Phillies and the Mets comes down to whose new pieces fit best. One of those will be Mike Pelfrey who some are saying is ready to take his game to the next level. Another new face is twenty-four-year-old Danny Murphy, penciled in for now as the starting left fielder. He will platoon with Fernando Tatis.

So after Beltran the outfield has several large question marks, including perennial disappointment Ryan Church in right field. The bottom line is that if Murphy plays up, Pelfrey to promise, and Santana’s elbow is okay, the Mets will win 100 games.

One of the better stories for the Mets is Livan Hernandez who has nailed down the fifth starter spot. Nothing could inspire more than one last playoff appearance for Livan’s “slow hook” that barely makes minimum speed on most interstates. He will not be the difference maker that he once was, but he should keep it entertaining.

Key Player: Frankie Rodriguez. No way Manuel keeps the spotlight off K-Rod. The bullpen has to step up for the Mets to win and he is the big name that was brought in to close the deal–especially down the stretch. But last September Rodriguez was lights out, pitching to a 0.90 ERA in 12 appearances. Betting against those stats is foolhardy. The Mets went out and got the piece of the puzzle that completes the picture, but the bigger problem will be keeping all the other pieces together for another season.

Philadelphia Phillies: Predicted Finish, Second Place (94-68)

A+ Infield: Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz
B- Outfield: Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Jason Werth,

B+ Starters: Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, J.A. Happ
B Bullpen: Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey

In a recent article in the Philadephia Inquirer, Jamie Moyer talked about watching Steve Carlton pitch one too many seasons at the end of his career. So, while I love the sentiment behind the Phillies off-season signing of Moyer, I believe sentiment will finish second in the NL East unless injuries undo the Mets in 2009. The Phillies acquisition of Raul Ibanez and the departure of Pat Burrell does not weaken the team on paper, but it puts pressure on Victorino to play two positions, with Ibanez likely to be slowing at 37.

Brett Myers has lost 35 pounds in the off-season and if better conditioning allows him to take up the slack left by a less effective Moyer, then it is going to be another September where the hungrier team wins it. Hamels and Brad Lidge have had some minor arm problems in the spring and Hamels may not make a start until the second week of the season. That is just one warning sign that may explain why the Phillies cannot repeat 2008. The Mets much improved bullpen is the other thing that may separate the two teams at the end of the season.

Key Player: J.A. Happ. Happ had eight starts last season and looked good in his brief exposure. The assumption going into this spring was that Kyle Kendrick was the fifth starter, but the Phillies came to their senses. Happ was a third rounder from Northwestern in 2004. He had a nice AAA season in Lehigh before his call-up, with 151 strikeouts and 48 walks in 135 innings. Throwing him into a tough pennant race may be asking a lot, and he may be too smart to pitch in Philadelphia, but the left-hander could provide the Phillies another arm if Moyer finally shows the effects of age.

Florida Marlins: Predicted Finish Third Place (82-80)

A- Infield: John Baker, Gaby Sanchez, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu
B- Outfield: Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida

B- Starters: Ricky Nolasco, J Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, A Miller
B Bullpen: Matt Lindstrom, Leo Nunez, Jose Ceda, Kensing, Proctor

Offensively the Marlins have more in common with the top two teams than with the Braves. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are as good as Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. John Baker is developing into a very fine catcher who can hit. But having to let Willingham, Olsen, and Jacobs go weakens the team. Getting Leo Nunez and Emilio Bonafacio in return was not enough for those players. Getting Jose Ceda for Gregg may be a great trade, but he is too young to know whether he is Jesus Colome or Mariano Rivera. Still, the bullpen arms in Florida are far better than their competition for third place.

The top three starters for the Marlins–Nolasco, Volstad, and Johnson–are more proven than the young hard throwers in the bullpen. They are going to be very good and gave some indication as to how good in the second half of 2008. The bullpen will feature Matt Lindstrom and Nunez. They and their supporting cast should be better than what the Braves and Nationals have to end games. Lindstrom could be something very special, another flame thrower who can hit 100 on a radar gun.

There are electric arms in South Florida and the Marlins should ride them further than most think possible. The bottom of the division will be close, but I give third place to the Marlins by a nose.

Key Player(s): Matt Lindstrom. If the young bullpen comes together, the Marlins could push the Phillies and the Mets.

Atlanta Braves: Predicted Finish Fourth Place (81-81)

A- Infield: Brian McCann, C Jones, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, C Kotchman
C Outfield: Garrett Anderson, Josh Anderson, Jeff Francoeur

B Starters: Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Karakami, Tom Glavine
C Bullpen: Mike Gonzalez, Raphael Soriano, Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer

I don’t believe the hype. The Braves did more in the off-season to make themselves competitive than almost anyone else in the division and have drawn rave reviews for doing so. But the rather expensive starting rotation will have to hand the ball off to a less than adequate bullpen and pray for the best. The outfield is not strong and though the infield features Brian McCann and Casey Kotchman, this team begs the question as to whether it is seasoned, veteran, or just plain old. Players like Garrett Anderson, Chipper Jones, and Tom Glavine in the dugout are significantly past their “Sell By” dates.

The enduring problem for the Braves is the refusal to go out and buy a bullpen.  Raphael Soriano is the best bullpen arm they have, but he has been hurt and may start the season on the DL.  Gonzalez may be less dependable a closer than Hanrahan in DC who has never proven himself in the role.  In the same way that Boston put Papelbon in the bullpen to pitch the ninth, Bobby Cox should consider letting prodigy Tommy Hanson pitch out of the bullpen until either Soriano is healthy or real help is found.

The Braves have a good organization as evidenced by McCann, but they have put their fortunes in the hands of high-priced free agents. That strategy works well for the Yankees but for others who go for the second tier talent, not so much.

Key Player: How much does Chipper Jones have left in the tank? He played like a man possessed during the first half, but 2009 is likely to look more like his second half when injuries limited his availability.

Wahington Nationals: Predicted Finish Fifth Place (78-84)

B- Infield: Jesus Flores, Adam Dunn, R Belliard, C Guzman, Ryan Zimmerman
B Outfield: Josh Willingham, Lastings Milledge, Dukes/Kearns

C+ Starters: John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Jordan Zimmermann, Daniel Cabrera, Shairon Martis
C- Bullpen: Joel Hanrahan, Joe Beimel, Saul Rivera, Jesus Colome, Steve Shell, Jason Bergmann.

Stan Kasten is finally in charge with Jim Bowden gone and many of the other holdovers that Bud Selig tied around the team’s neck in 2005. But it will take time to build from the worst record in baseball. Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham and young developing players like Milledge, Dukes and Zimmerman will likely add a run per game more than the Nationals scored in 2009.

Coming out of spring the Nationals pitching looks very young. Jordan Zimmerman has definitely pitched his way into the rotation and Shairon Martis of WBC fame looks to have joined him. Along with John Lannan they give the Nationals three promising young talents. Throwing Scott Olsen into that mix is a positive in that he has been durable and should be able to put up numbers within a half-run per game of his 2008 season in Florida. Daniel Cabrera adds nothing. The best that can be hoped is that Cabrera eats enough innings so that the Nationals do not overuse young arms like Zimmermann and Martis.

The bullpen has just as many questions, although the late spring addition of Joe Beimel is a huge boost. The rotation has too much downside potential and the bullpen is only slightly more reliable. The Nationals do not look like the worst team in baseball, but they are a long way from being the best.

Key Player: Jordan Zimmermann. If Zimmermann can throw 180 innings at the major league level in 2009 with an ERA below 4.5, the Nationals could come close to .500. That is a tall order for a rookie pitcher, but Zimmermann could easily better such modest expectations. The most important statement Zimmermann’s successful development may make is to Stephen Strasburg–the team’s likely choice in the June first year player draft. Zimmermann’s rapid rise and success may convince him that signing with Washington is a smart money move.