The Case for J.J. Hardy

On August 12, the Milwaukee Brewers sent SS J.J. Hardy down to Triple-A Nashville and called up SS Alcides Escobar, who is one of the organization’s top prospects.

Hardy was hitting just .229 in 371 at-bats this season with the Brewers, along with 11 home runs and 45 RBI.   He will turn 27 on August 19, and he hit 20 or more home runs in both 2007 and 2008.   Here are his most pertinent offensive stats from those seasons.

2008-.283 AVG, 24 HR, 74 RBI, .478 SLG,  31 2B, 78 runs scored
2007- .277 AVG, 26 HR, 80 RBI, .463 SLG, 30 2B, 89 runs scored

So it’s obvious that Hardy has seen his offensive numbers drop off this season.  But he has battled back and shoulder injuries at different times in 2009, so that could be at least partially to blame.

According to FanGraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com) and their defensive metrics, Hardy has been the third best overall defensive shortstop in major league baseball so far this season.

Hardy is very likely to be traded some time this offseason.  If he had remained in the big leagues the rest of the season, and assuming he does not return to the Brewers at some point this season,  Hardy would have accumulated five years of major league service time and been eligible for free agency after 2010.  If he stays in the minors for the rest of 2009, that will create one more year of arbitration eligibility and delays his free agency until after the 2011 season.    Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin has said that Hardy’s service time situation was not a factor in his demotion, though it seems to be a funny coincidence that the timing could make a player they may no longer want into a more valuable trade chip.

As for potential trade destinations for Hardy this winter,  the shortstop-starved Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins both come to mind.  He is obviously still young,  turning 27 this week, and offers good all-around ability.  So Hardy is definitely a valuable commodity, the question is: What would the Brewers want in return if they deal him?