JOSELO DIAZ
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2007  3   4   45   0   0   2   --   65.3   53   39   36   66   60   5.02   6   0   2   4   6   311   0 
 
OK, not who you were expecting? Joselo Diaz is of course not FROM Japan – he’s a Dominican - but he did pitch in Japan last year, was a free agent, and was I believe the first 2007 NPB player to sign a 2008 contract with a MLB organization, as the Mets signed him. He’s a hard throwing 28 year-old right-handed reliever who has had control problems throughout his minor league career, and as you can see by his MLE he really didn’t solve his control problems in Japan. He was actually a bit “ERA lucky” in 2007, and certainly wouldn’t put up even a 5.02 ERA in MLB with that walk rate.
 
MARK KROON
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2005  3   2   55   0   0   26   43   52.0   46   19   18   25   60   3.07   1   0   1   1   0   225   0 
2006  4   2   47   0   0   27  42   47.3   43   19   17    9   69   3.33   3   0   4   1   1   191   0 
2007  3   1   43   0   0   31   --   41.3   39   15   15   17   63   3.17   2   0   5   0   2   179   0 
 
Surprise again! Kroon actually signed with the Yomiuri Giants to be their closer for 2008, so he definitely won’t be migrating to MLB. Kroon throws close to 100 mph, and also throws a splitter. Like Diaz, he had control problems in the U.S. minors, but unlike Diaz, he has been able to find his control in Japan. If he were a 35 year-old Japanese pitcher with these same MLE’s, teams would probably be falling all over themselves to sign him. But because he’s a FAILED 35 year-old MLB pitcher, the perception of him is that he can’t be successful in the majors, and there apparently were hardly any nibbles from U.S. teams for his services. Although he had some injury issues, and is getting up in age, per his MLEs, MLB teams are really missing out on a probable good setup man.

For the remainder of these guys, since most of them will be coming to MLB, I’ll include a rough projection for 2008.

 
KAZUO FUKUMORI
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2005  4   3   49   0   0   11   32   63.7   77   25   24   25   36   3.38   3   0   4   7   2   290   0 
2006  2   1   50   0   0   21  34   56.3   55   17   16   30   53   2.56   1   0   7   4   3   254   0 
2007  3   3   34   0   0   17   --   35.3   46   22   20   18   32   5.16   1   0   1   2   2   171   0 
2008  3   2   42   0   0   17   25   47.0   54   21   19   23   40   3.72   1   0   4   4   2   219   0 
 
Not sure what to make of Fukumori. He’s had a very up and down career, like a lot of relievers, but has generally been good. In 2006 he was EXCELLENT. He had some elbow problems last year, but he’ll be ‘only’ 31-years-old in 2008. Looks like he’d be a very good low-cost middle reliever.

Editor's Note: Fukumori signed a two-year/$3 million deal with the Texas Rangers on Friday. His MLEs are NOT specific to Ameriquest Field.

 
DAISUKE MIURA
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2005  14   6   28   28   10    0    0   210.7   194   71   67   60   174   2.85   14   2   4   2   4   868  -- 
2006  11   8   30   30   9   0  0   212.7   255   96   91   49   157   3.84   13   3   3   5   5   926   -- 
2007  14   9   28  28   4   0   0   180.7   208   75   70   58   155   3.51   10   3   5   3   7   798   -- 
2008  13   8   29   29   7   0   0   196.3   221   81   77   55   159   3.51   12   3   4   4   6   852   -- 
 
Finally, a STARTING pitcher! He’s 34 years-old, and his last really good year was 2005. Still looks like he could be an effective 5th starter for someone.
 
YASUHIKO YABUTA
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2005  7   4   51   0   0   2   15   55.3   49   21   20   15   54   3.25   4   0   1   1   2   224   0 
2006  5   3   47   0   0   1  16   52.7   50   20   19   30   46   3.28   2   0   0   4   0   234   0 
2007  4   2   58   0   0   4   0   60.7   75   24   22   12   43   3.32   3   0   0   2   2   264   0 
2008  5   3   53   0   0   3   8   57.0   62   22   21   18   46   3.30   3   0   0   3   1   247   0 
 
Signed by the Kansas City Royals. A 35 year-old setup man. Had some control problems in 2006, and seemed to compensate in 2007 by making more ‘hittable’ pitches possibly. He was excellent back in 2004, which isn’t included in his 2008 projection. As relievers go, probably a good gamble by the Royals.
 
MASAHIDE KOBAYASHI
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2005  3   1   46   0   0   29   43   44.3   56   15   14   10   32   2.89   4   0   0   1   1   195   0 
2006  5   3   53   0   0   34  48   51.3   59   21   20   10   46   3.52   3   0   0   4   2   220   0 
2007  4   4   49   0   0   27   --   45.0   62   25   23   14   33   4.66   3   0   0   4   2   209   0 
2008  4   3   50   0   0   30   23   47.0   60   22   21   12   37   3.97   3   0   0   2   2   210   0 
 
Signed by the Cleveland Indians. 34 year-old right-handed closer who will apparently pitch in middle relief for Cleveland. Had some back problems in September. Not projected as anything special.
 
HIROKI KURODA
 Year W L G GS CG SV GF IP H R ER BB K ERA HR SHO WP IBB HB BFP BK
2005  18   9   29   28   11    0    0   213.0   197   79   75   45   165   3.16   11   1   7   2   7   870  0 
2006  15   4   26   25   7   1  1   184.3   194   48   45   24   140   2.21   9   2   5   4   8   765   0 
2007  11   9   26  26   7   0   0   175.7   203   84   79   48   120   4.05   14   1   1   3   5   762   0 
2008  13   7   27   26   8   0   0   184.7   199   71   67   40   134   3.27   12   1   3   3   6   781   0 
 
Supposedly signing with the Dodgers, so I projected him to Dodger Stadium. 33-year-old right-handed starter. He was an excellent pitcher in 2005 & 2006, but in 2007 strikeouts were down, walks and hits were up. I haven’t heard of any injury problems in 2007, so maybe those are warning signs. 2006 was certainly a ‘career year’ for him, but apparently the Dodgers must be projecting him to something close to what I have for 2008 if the rumored contract is true.
 
KOSUKE FUKUDOME
 Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB HBP K SB CS SH SF GDP AVG OBP SLG
2005  158   539   108   155   45   12   17   108   81   3   0   124   17   12   0   4   8   .288   .379   .511 
2006  144   521   129   163   55   11   20   116   71   4   3   89   14   5   0   4   5   .314   .397   .577 
2007  91   286   69  72   25   1   8   52   61   3   6   66   7   2   0   5   5   .251   .389   .433 
2008  130   435   122   126   42   6   13   65   68   3   5   79   10   3   0   4   6   .290   .388   .503 
 
The only position player of note coming to MLB this year. Has signed with Chicago Cubs. He’s a 31-year-old, left-handed hitting outfielder. Looking over the internet, my projection looks like one of the more optimistic ones. I should caution that my MLE method is still a work in progress, but I feel pretty good about them overall, and don’t think this one is unreasonable. Fukudome was a doubles machine in Japan – that 55 MLE doubles in 2006 is real given what he actually did, the difference in season length, differences in the number of doubles in NPB vs. MLB, and that Wrigley Field is a good doubles park. He did have elbow problems in 2007, and had off-season surgery, so there could be injury recovery issues that aren’t reflected here. However, Fukudome is the best hitting OF in Japan since Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, and although he’s probably not QUITE as good overall as either of them, he’s not much below them either, and I would expect that he’ll have a very fine MLB career.